963
FXUS62 KJAX 031201
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
801 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WINDY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH AT THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT/THURSDAY.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. RIP CURRENT REMAIN
MODERATE TO HIGH THIS WEEKEND.
- DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. REMAINING
SHOWERS OVER NE FL WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS AREA THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT, BUT THERE
WILL BE A BROAD RANGE IN READINGS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED OVER INLAND SE GA, WHILE READINGS ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THE CENTER OF THE MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
OVER NORTH GA TO SC ON THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND DRY
CONDITIONS. DAYTIME BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
AND PARTS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FL GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST.
AN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BREEZE.
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A GENTLE SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST, MAINLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. LARGELY
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AGAIN, CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO FOR THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST TO PUTNAM OR MARION COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND AND MID 80S COAST.
LOWS AROUND 60 WILL INLAND THU NIGHT, THEN LOWER 60S INLAND
FRI NIGHT. COASTAL AREAS WARMER IN THE LOWER 70S BOTH NIGHTS.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES, THOUGH THE SURF HEIGHTS WILL BE ON A
LOWERING TREND OVERALL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND.
- GRADUAL WARM-UP FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES AT 500 MB
FROM THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES, AND THEN MAY BEGIN TO EASE
FURTHER INTO THE GULF AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS IN OVER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS DRIFTS WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE MINIMAL INFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE, GENERAL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH DIGGING
IN OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY TO TUESDAY, WHICH MAY BUMP UP OUR RAIN
CHANCES.
A STRETCH OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY 10 TO 20 PERCENT
SUNDAY, BUT LOOK TO RISE TO 20-35 PERCENT MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY UP
TO 40-60 PERCENT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES
TOWARD OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY MODERATE AND CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL THIS THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 OR LOWER 90S INLAND
THROUGH MONDAY, AND EASING DOWN TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. LOWS MODERATE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.
SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS 18-28KTS.
BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 32KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CRG AND SSI THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER 01Z WITH GUSTS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THEN PERSISTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
- LOW MIN RH INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON
AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL
- EARLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT
ELEVATED TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF VERY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. MORE EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS
ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSION, WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO WEAKER
WINDS.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN TODAY AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEAST SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND SUPPORT GOOD
TO HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIR MASS, RECENT RAINFALL AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 79 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 79 70 82 71 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 80 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 80 71 84 70 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 84 62 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 82 64 84 64 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-
454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ470-472-
474.
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