267
FXUS62 KJAX 040622
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. RIP
CURRENTS RISK REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH THIS WEEKEND
- DRIER THIS WEEK, INCREASED TSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, THOUGH WITH SOME
MODERATION AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT WITH LOW
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN GA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECTING A PLEASANT DAY FEATURING MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CLOUD COVER, AS HIGHS BUMP UP JUST A BIT INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S AS ONSHORE FLOW LIGHTENS. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 15-
20G25-30MPH FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST FL AND THE COASTS AND A
GENERAL 10-15G20-25MPH ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY
CONCERNS/HAZARDS WILL BE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES,
AS WELL AS ROUGH SURF IN THE 4-6 FOOT RANGE. WINDS DROP OFF FURTHER
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION, WITH
LOW TEMPS OVERALL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY MORNING, IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY, WITH HIGH RISK
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY PRODUCING PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY MODIFYING AIR.
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH ONLY FEW CUMULUS AND HIGH
CLOUDS, WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 15G20-25 MPH COASTAL, LESS
INLAND AREAS, BY THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. NOTED MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT OF LESS THAN 1 INCH AND EAST FLOW UP TO ABOUT 8
KFT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION
WELL INLAND, BUT SHOULD NOT BE A BIG CONCERN OWING TO THE OVERALL
DRY AIRMASS.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE INTO SATURDAY THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL BE WEAKER AS THE CENTER THE DEEP LAYER HIGH MOVES OVER THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. PWATS REMAIN BELOW AN INCH PER NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL STILL EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN GA AND SC
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
WILL LIKE WINDS UP AGAIN TO ABOUT 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH FOR
THE EAST COAST AREAS.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH DAILY
HIGH TEMPS RISING FROM UPPER 80S INLAND FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. COASTAL MAX TEMPS STILL STAY ABOUT MID 80S BOTH DAYS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN BE FAIRLY COOL FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND ABOUT LOWER 70S COAST. THESE TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WE CAN'T RULE OUT VERY
PATCHY FOG BOTH NIGHTS DUE TO THE CALMING WINDS INLAND AREAS.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES, THOUGH THE SURF HEIGHTS WILL BE ON A
LOWERING TREND OVERALL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- AT LEAST MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS MODELS SHOW A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY, AS AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL
ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT FURTHER MOVES SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND INTO OUR
AREA. THE FRONT AND THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ON MONDAY ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT
AND 30-50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BEGIN ON
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM. SOME CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TUE- WED WITH WEAK SIGNAL SHOWN FROM NBM 70TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILE GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH MAX
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S COAST. WITH THE
FRONT'S INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE NUDGED
DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GENERALLY,
WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE AT THE COAST AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
MARINE INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW MAY ENHANCE RISK FURTHER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WHICH WILL BE SUSTAINED CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KTS AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP DIURNALLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
LITTLE TO NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 10KTS
FORECAST WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SUBSIDE RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONFINED TO OFFSHORE
WATERS TODAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW THESE THRESHOLDS ON FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW THEN PERSISTS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES TODAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS, IN ADDITION TO SURF HEIGHTS IN THE 4-5
FOOT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
- LOW MIN RH INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON
ELEVATED TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE EAST TODAY WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
VERY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. ON FRIDAY, SLIGHTLY LOWER EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ARE
FORECAST BUT THEY STILL SUPPORT AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION.
A DRIER PATTERN TODAY WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WHERE VALUES TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIR MASS, RECENT RAINFALL AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 59 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 83 72 84 74 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 84 66 86 69 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 84 71 85 72 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 86 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 85 65 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ452-
454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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