695
FXUS62 KJAX 190020
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
820 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
TRAVERSE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- KVAX (VALDOSTA, GA) RADAR IS OUT OF SERVICE. PLEASE UTILIZE
OTHER AREA RADARS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
UPDATE
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT
CONTINUING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE AREA WATERS. WILL
BE USUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S GIVEN
THE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP TO
ABOUT 8-12 MPH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
HALF THE ZONES. MAIN UPDATES WERE TO ADJUST POPS FOR QUICKER EXIT OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THIS EVENING, AND AMEND POPS A
BIT GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDORS. STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE T'STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
TRAVERSE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE (1007
MILLIBARS) FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR TRAVERSING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THIS FEATURE BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND CREATING AN EXPANDING REGION OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE OZARKS. ALOFT...TROUGHING THAT WAS PROGRESSING SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES HAS DISPLACED DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS, CREATING A DEEPENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA, WITH PWATS GENERALLY IN THE
1.8 - 2 INCH RANGE, WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF, FEATURING PWATS AROUND OR JUST BELOW 1.75 INCHES
POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COAST LATER
TODAY. A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA MOVING BRISKLY
NORTHEASTWARD, WHILE LIGHTER STEERING FLOW WAS RESULTING IN SLOWER
MOVING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. OUTSIDE OF RAIN COOLED
LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES AT 19Z WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, CREATING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM IN THE WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH
RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTION EXPECTED. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO PULSE AND BECOME STRONG, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS FORMED AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS, AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2,000 J/KG AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY SPEED
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PULSE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. FASTER STORM MOTION
SHOULD PRECLUDE FLOOD CONCERNS AT MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH SOME
THREAT FOR TRAINING CELLS MAY DEVELOP AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BASED ON
STRENGTHENING, MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AL AND
GA TONIGHT, WITH A TRAILING BAND OF CONVECTION LIKELY APPROACHING
THE OCMULGEE / ALTAMAHA RIVERS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A 40-45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 850
MILLIBARS (AROUND 5,000 FEET) ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A BROKEN SQUALL LINE CONTAINING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS. CAMS HAVE
BEEN WAVERING ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST GA AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A "MARGINAL" (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL VEERING MAY
STILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL, MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF WAYCROSS. A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL OTHERWISE KEEP LOWS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS FRIDAY
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS SATURDAY
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PATTERN FOR DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ROTATION EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER
THE GULF. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WITH TRAINING STORMS AS PWAT VALUES MEASURE UPWARDS OF 2.4
INCHES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER TO MID
90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COASTLINE. HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE TO VALUES OF OVER 100 FAHRENHEIT
WITH CONDITIONS RISING TO BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS NEXT WEEK
- DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTERNOON AND EVENING T'STORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN OVER THE REGION BY END OF SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
EXTENDS IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN MORE INHIBITED
CONVECTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW
SHIFTING ABOUT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEFORE MIDWEEK. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO BE 100 AND HIGHER FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR AT THIS TIME AS THE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS GENERALLY
ENDED EXCEPT FOR SSI WHERE THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
SO TEMPO GROUP CONTINUES THERE INTO LATE EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE 09Z-14Z TIME
FRAME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, OR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY SO INCLUDED VCTS AND WITH SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE HAVE A
TEMPO TSRA GROUP FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG WITH LOW VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME
PREVAILING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH STRENGTHENING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AREA WATERS WITH SMALL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST
ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY, WITH A
FEW STRONGER OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY DECREASE COVERAGE OF
STORMS.
RIP CURRENTS:
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE INLAND MOVING
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MAY CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK FOR THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES. LOW SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE RISK LOW AT
THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY, WITH A LOWER END MODERATE RISK
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
LOW RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES, AND STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP SURF HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A LOW RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES TODAY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS T'STORMS TODAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALLOW THE GULF SEABREEZE TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEFORE INTERACTING WITH THE PINNED ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST. T'STORMS WILL INCLUDE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL SINK TOWARDS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR NORTH
CENTRAL OR CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF T'STORMS.
FAVORABLE TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. GOOD
LEVEL DISPERSIONS EXPECTED DURING EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE CLOUDS LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS WHILE TRANSPORT WINDS
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT TODAY AND ALONG WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102-106 NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST FL. HIGHS WILL DECREASE TO THE LOW 90S FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG.
EQUIPMENT
THE WSR-88D RADAR LOCATED NEAR THE MOODY AFB NEAR VALDOSTA
REMAINS OFFLINE DUE TO TECHNICAL PROBLEMS. TECHNICIANS ARE
AWAITING CRITICAL PARTS TO RESTORE FUNCTIONALITY. DURING THE
OUTAGE PLEASE UTILIZE OTHER AREA RADARS...KJAX, KTLH, OR KJGX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 85 73 88 / 80 80 40 70
SSI 78 91 77 89 / 20 60 30 70
JAX 78 92 76 90 / 20 60 50 90
SGJ 77 94 77 91 / 30 40 30 90
GNV 78 92 76 91 / 10 50 40 90
OCF 78 92 77 91 / 10 40 40 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-
470.
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