593
FXUS62 KJAX 191214
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
814 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY - PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES: 103- 109
- AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS AREA-WIDE THROUGH MOST OF. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON (2 PM 9 PM). STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES & HEAVY
- DOWNPOURS I-95 & I-10 CORRIDOR AND ALL OF SE GA THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
I-10 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-60
MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- SCATTERED STRONG STORMS SPREAD INTO THE REST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50
MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- HEAT INDICES OF 104-108F EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY,
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS REMNANT TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK RAPIDLY E-NE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS PUSHING ACROSS SE GA THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NORTH FL BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS TO 60 MPH, AND A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
TRAINING NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF INLAND SE GA, BUT ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND NOT MUCH RAINFALL THERE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD PREVENT THE NEED FOR ANY FLOOD WATCH TO BE POSTED. OUTFLOWS
FOR THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NE FL AND WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER SCATTERED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL UP
TO 50 MPH, BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE EXITING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE
FL/GA BORDER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD LESSEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MORE OF A CHALLENGE TODAY, WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
ACROSS SE GA AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S ACROSS SE GA, AROUND 90F ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WHILE THE
LATER START TO ANY STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NE FL SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AND
POTENTIAL HEAT INDICES INTO THE 104-108F RANGE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE, AND HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL TIMING, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR
NOW. VERY WARM LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 80F, AND MANY
LOCATIONS LOW TEMP TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING RAINFALL COOLED
AIR DROPPING TEMPORARILY INTO THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS SATURDAY
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
SATURDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO NE FL AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION INTO THE UPPER OH/TN VALLEYS.
THIS WILL PROMOTE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T'STORMS MORE
OVER NE FL AS LIFT FROM THE FRONT, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT, AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINE TO CREATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH DIMINISHED COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SE GA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO WNW WITH SKIES STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDY
SKIES WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY, BUT GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND
MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL EXPECTED FOR NE FL SATURDAY WITH SLOWER
STORM MOTIONS PUSHING ACTIVITY ESE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S OVER NE FL AND AROUND 90 OVER SE GA.
SATURDAY NIGHT, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTIALLY CLEAR WITH T'STORMS
ENDING BY 10PM AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 70S OVER SE GA AND THE
MID 70S OVER NE FL AND THE COAST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM INLAND.
SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS SE GA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NE FL AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE GULF SEABREEZE MORE PROGRESS INLAND
COMPARED TO THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE, WITH THEIR MOVEMENT INLAND
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS IN THE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AROUND 90 OVER SE GA AND THE LOW 90S OVER
NE FL. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 100-105 AS DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S OVER NE FL AND THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS NEXT WEEK
- DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTERNOON AND EVENING T'STORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
MONDAY, DRIER AIR WILL LOWER PWATS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES AND ALONG
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DUE TO RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND FL PENINSULA AS A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION. WIDELY ISOLATED T'STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR HOT
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT OVER FAR INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL RISE TO 104-108, VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
TUESDAY, A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WITH WSW FLOW AND AN
UPTICK IN MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS MOSTLY
OVER SE GA. BUT, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS VALUES
CLIMB TO 106-110 AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED NEAR OR NORTH OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH WITH MORE CLOUDS AND WSW FLOW, BUT ALSO
HIGHS DIALING BACK A LITTLE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S, HOWEVER ELEVATED
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PERSIST 104-108. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT STALLS, SO KEEPING SCATTERED CHANCES FOR
T'STORMS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR TAF SITES. INCLUDED VCTS
AND WITH SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE HAVE A TEMPO TSRA GROUP FOR ALL THE
TAF SITES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOW VSBY AND GUSTY
WINDS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH STRENGTHENING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO 12-14
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CLOUD DECKS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY BY AROUND 04Z-08Z.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AREA WATERS WITH SMALL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH A FEW STRONGER OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY
DECREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS.
RIP CURRENTS:
GENERALLY A LOW RISK OF RIPS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURF
REMAINS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
FIRE WEATHER
A FRONT WILL SINK TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY WITH NUMEROUS T'STORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA AND SCATTERED T'STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FL. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST FL SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR NORTH CENTRAL OR CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF T'STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED
T'STORMS MONDAY, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS INTO MIDWEEK.
GOOD LEVEL DISPERSIONS EXPECTED DURING EACH AFTERNOON TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE CLOUDS LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS WHILE TRANSPORT WINDS
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL DECREASE TO THE LOW 90S TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NEXT WEEK WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR T'STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG. T'STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EQUIPMENT
THE WSR-88D RADAR LOCATED NEAR THE MOODY AFB NEAR VALDOSTA
REMAINS OFFLINE DUE TO TECHNICAL PROBLEMS. TECHNICIANS ARE
AWAITING CRITICAL PARTS TO RESTORE FUNCTIONALITY. DURING THE
OUTAGE PLEASE UTILIZE OTHER AREA RADARS...KJAX, KTLH, OR KJGX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 73 88 71 / 90 30 70 20
SSI 90 75 89 76 / 80 40 70 10
JAX 90 75 90 73 / 90 40 80 10
SGJ 93 76 90 75 / 60 30 90 20
GNV 91 75 90 73 / 60 40 90 20
OCF 92 75 90 74 / 50 40 90 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-
470.
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