398
FXUS62 KJAX 200003
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
803 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST FL EARLY TO MID EVENING
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD T'STORMS ON SATURDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FL. MAIN HAZARDS, WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
I-10 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS SPREAD INTO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
- HEAT INDICES OF 104-108F EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY,
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AS PASSING TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA, CROSSING INTO NEAR AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT
TODAY AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS, WITH FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE
OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO RETURN EARLY SATURDAY. RECORD HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME
AREAS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER 100 FOR PORTIONS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS SATURDAY
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH THE FRONT BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD,
CLEARING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS (NE FL) AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS (SE GA). HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED AS PWATS REMAIN
AROUND THE 2" RANGE, WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. POPS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING, WITH
SCATTERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST, WITH THE GULF BREEZE BEING THE DOMINANT BREEZE AND THE
ATLANTIC BREEZE NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AS CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TOO WARM. COME SUNDAY, LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AREA-WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S BOTH NIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 100-105 AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 70S OVER NE FL AND THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS NEXT WEEK
- DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTERNOON AND EVENING T'STORMS
THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION, THE COVERAGE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS, GA. BY MIDWEEK,
TRENDS CURRENTLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING AROUND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AT THIS TIME.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY AND HOT
CONDITIONS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS NE FL AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS THROUGH 02-
03Z WITH SHOWERS A BIT HEAVIER AT GNV TO SGJ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, WITH VCTS AT GNV. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH TO VCSH
THEREAFTER TOWARDS 06Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND 0.5 KFT THROUGH 12Z.
SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T'STORMS GETTING STARTED EARLY AT GNV JUST AFTER 12Z AND
SPREADING TO THE COAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HAVE PROB30
GROUPS FOR PRIMARILY 17-23Z FOR THE TERMINALS WHERE HEAVIER T'STORMS
AND DOWNPOURS WILL BRING AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS TO ALL TAF SITES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST 6-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. AFTER T'STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THE PERIOD WILL END WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
1.5 KFT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BUILDING ACROSS NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS , WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY DECREASE COVERAGE OF
STORMS.
RIP CURRENTS:
GENERALLY A LOW RISK OF RIPS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURF
REMAINS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
FIRE WEATHER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND T'STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T'STORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
GOOD LEVEL DISPERSIONS EXPECTED DURING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MORE CLOUDS LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS, WITH HIGHER DISPERSIONS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR T'STORMS
WITH POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG. T'STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EQUIPMENT
THE WSR-88D RADAR LOCATED NEAR THE MOODY AFB NEAR VALDOSTA
REMAINS OFFLINE DUE TO TECHNICAL PROBLEMS. TECHNICIANS ARE
AWAITING CRITICAL PARTS TO RESTORE FUNCTIONALITY. DURING THE
OUTAGE PLEASE UTILIZE OTHER AREA RADARS...KJAX, KTLH, OR KJGX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 88 72 90 / 10 70 30 30
SSI 77 89 75 90 / 20 80 30 30
JAX 76 90 73 92 / 30 80 40 40
SGJ 77 90 74 91 / 30 70 30 50
GNV 76 90 72 92 / 30 90 50 40
OCF 77 90 74 91 / 40 70 40 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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