118
FXUS62 KJAX 200508
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
108 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM WAYCROSS NORTHWARD. AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY WILL BE PRONE TO FLOODING TODAY.
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD T'STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN HAZARDS WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES 103 TO 107 DEGREES TODAY AND SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST FL.
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS TODAY
- POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WILL BEGIN
TO SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO SE GA MID TO LATE MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WARM AND MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE WITH CURRENT TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LOW 70S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
10 AND MID 70S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE COAST DUE TO STRONG
OUTFLOWS FROM YESTERDAY'S T'STORMS BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
THE SURFACE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRIES CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM
OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PRESS IN
FROM THE NE GULF TOWARDS I-75 BY SUNRISE WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS 3-6
MPH THROUGH MID MORNING.
TODAY, THE BASE OF A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF
OF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF AMERICA WATERS. UNSTABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL FUNNEL ACROSS THE
GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH INTO THE AREA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND
MOVE ABOVE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING FROM SE GA TOWARDS THE
FL/GA STATE LINE. LIGHT WSW WINDS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS AROUND 2.00 INCHES) OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL HEATING, BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND
-8C WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.0 C/KM, MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS.
THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING ALOFT WILL HELP SPUR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD T'STORMS
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN AS A WAVE OF SHOWERS
PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY EASTWARD AND GENERATE
INCREASING COVERAGE OF T'STORMS FROM I-75 TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER AFTER
T'STORMS PUSH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNSET AND END BETWEEN 10PM AND MIDNIGHT.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH TONIGHT
WHERE 4-10 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OCCURRED FRIDAY AND T'STORMS
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR COULD
EXACERBATE FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF US-82.
THE CLOUDS WILL MUTE TODAY'S HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS, AND AROUND 90 CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL. WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL TURN WEST TO WNW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE LATE AS A WEAK LOW
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE WEAKENING FRONT SETTLES
NEAR NORTH CENTRAL FL. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
SUNDAY: FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AND TEMPS WILL
BUILD BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL STILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, WITH FOCUS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST ALONG THE I-95/US-17 CORRIDORS. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK
AROUND 105F, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT AND WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE
90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-110F RANGE, LIKELY ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- RETURN TO AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK
TUE/WED: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP
STORM CHANCES ONLY ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AND WIDELY SCATTERED ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH UNDER WESTERLY FLOW WILL STILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO THE MIDDLE 90S, AND EXPECT HEAT INDICES INTO
THE 105-110F RANGE, WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA.
THU/FRI/SAT: STILL REMAINING HOT AND HUMID WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S, BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE SE US AND BREAK DOWN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS, AS MORE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
INJECTED INTO THE REGION ALOFT. DAILY HEAT INDICES WILL STILL TOP
OUT AT LEAST AS HIGH AS 105F, AND WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER FOR HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES
LATER IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE EXPECTED WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS DAILY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND ALONG THE I-95/US-17 CORRIDOR, WITH ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER 08Z AS LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS
INLAND AND SHIFTS TO THE COAST THROUGH SUNRISE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE INLAND.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE JUST AFTER SUNRISE NEAR GNV AND
SHIFT EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR OR SOUTH OF SGJ. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z SATURDAY AS WAVES OF ENERGY ALOFT
AND THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH COMBINE TO CREATE
INCREASING COVERAGE OF T'STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE KEPT
PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY LEVELS IN
T'STORMS A BIT SOONER AT GNV FURTHER WEST AROUND 16Z, AND A BIT
LATER AT THE COASTAL AND DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AROUND 18Z. STRONG
WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL TO 25 KNOTS ALSO INCLUDED FOR GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS IN T'STORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY OUTSIDE OF
T'STORMS 6-10 KNOTS.
T'STORMS WILL END AND MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AFTER 23Z WITH
SHOWERS FADING BY 02Z WITH BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS SCATTERING BEFORE
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AFTER 02Z.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WATERS TODAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA WATERS EARLY MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DUE TO THE DAILY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
GENERALLY A LOW RISK OF RIPS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURF
REMAINS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
FIRE WEATHER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
T'STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T'STORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
GOOD LEVEL DISPERSIONS EXPECTED DURING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MORE CLOUDS LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS, WITH HIGHER DISPERSIONS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR T'STORMS
WITH POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG. T'STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EQUIPMENT
THE WSR-88D RADAR LOCATED NEAR THE MOODY AFB NEAR VALDOSTA
REMAINS OFFLINE DUE TO TECHNICAL PROBLEMS. TECHNICIANS ARE
AWAITING CRITICAL PARTS TO RESTORE FUNCTIONALITY. DURING THE
OUTAGE PLEASE UTILIZE OTHER AREA RADARS...KJAX, KTLH, OR KJGX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 71 91 73 / 90 30 20 10
SSI 90 75 88 77 / 60 40 20 10
JAX 90 73 91 74 / 80 50 30 10
SGJ 90 74 91 75 / 70 40 40 10
GNV 90 73 92 73 / 80 30 40 0
OCF 91 75 92 73 / 70 20 40 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-151-152-
250.
MARINE...NONE.
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