144
FXUS62 KJAX 201225
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
825 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM WAYCROSS NORTHWARD. AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY WILL BE PRONE TO FLOODING TODAY.
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD T'STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN HAZARDS WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES 103 TO 107 DEGREES TODAY AND SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST FL.
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DELAY THE PRECIP A
BIT WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS. IN FURTHER
SUPPORT, 12Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIN WHICH WILL
DEFINITELY HELP DELAY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MODELS STILL QUITE SUPPORTIVE
OF A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH THE LAST FEW VERSIONS OF THE HRRR ARE SHOWING MUCH LESS
COVERAGE AND ALSO SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL, THIS DOES CAST SOME DOUBT ON COVERAGE TODAY
SO FURTHER AMENDMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE. NO CHANGE TO
THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.5 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST, BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS UNDER HEAVIER STORMS OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS.
DID UPDATE THE EVENING TIME FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AROUND THE 7-11 PM TIME FRAME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS TODAY
- POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WILL BEGIN
TO SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO SE GA MID TO LATE MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WARM AND MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE WITH CURRENT TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LOW 70S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
10 AND MID 70S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE COAST DUE TO STRONG
OUTFLOWS FROM YESTERDAY'S T'STORMS BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
THE SURFACE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRIES CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM
OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PRESS IN
FROM THE NE GULF TOWARDS I-75 BY SUNRISE WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS 3-6
MPH THROUGH MID MORNING.
TODAY, THE BASE OF A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF
OF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF AMERICA WATERS. UNSTABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL FUNNEL ACROSS THE
GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH INTO THE AREA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND
MOVE ABOVE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING FROM SE GA TOWARDS THE
FL/GA STATE LINE. LIGHT WSW WINDS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS 2.00-2.25) OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SOME OF THE
LOW LEVEL HEATING, BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C WILL ALLOW
FOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.0 C/KM, MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
UPDRAFTS.
THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING ALOFT WILL HELP SPUR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD T'STORMS
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN AS A WAVE OF SHOWERS
PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY EASTWARD AND GENERATE
INCREASING COVERAGE OF T'STORMS FROM I-75 TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3
INCHES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER AFTER T'STORMS PUSH OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AND END BETWEEN
10PM AND MIDNIGHT.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH TONIGHT
WHERE 4-10 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OCCURRED FRIDAY AND T'STORMS
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR COULD
EXACERBATE FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF US-82.
THE CLOUDS WILL MUTE TODAY'S HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS, AND AROUND 90 CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL. WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL TURN WEST TO WNW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE LATE AS A WEAK LOW
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE WEAKENING FRONT SETTLES
NEAR NORTH CENTRAL FL. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
SUNDAY: FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AND TEMPS WILL
BUILD BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL STILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, WITH FOCUS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST ALONG THE I-95/US-17 CORRIDORS. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK
AROUND 105F, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT AND WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE
90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-110F RANGE, LIKELY ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- RETURN TO AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK
TUE/WED: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP
STORM CHANCES ONLY ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AND WIDELY SCATTERED ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH UNDER WESTERLY FLOW WILL STILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO THE MIDDLE 90S, AND EXPECT HEAT INDICES INTO
THE 105-110F RANGE, WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA.
THU/FRI/SAT: STILL REMAINING HOT AND HUMID WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S, BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE SE US AND BREAK DOWN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS, AS MORE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
INJECTED INTO THE REGION ALOFT. DAILY HEAT INDICES WILL STILL TOP
OUT AT LEAST AS HIGH AS 105F, AND WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER FOR HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES
LATER IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE EXPECTED WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS DAILY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND ALONG THE I-95/US-17 CORRIDOR, WITH ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
MULTILAYERED VFR CLOUDS FOR THE TAFS AROUND AT THIS TIME BUT NO
PRECIP AT THE MOMENT. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHEAST
FL LATER THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH THROUGH 18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A TEMPO GROUP FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IF NOT IFR. STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL TO
30 KNOTS ALSO INCLUDED FOR GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS IN T'STORMS. MAY
STILL BE SOME STORMS AROUND IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME. SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY OUTSIDE OF T'STORMS 6-10 KNOTS.
T'STORMS WILL END AND MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING, PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 03Z/04Z. SOME BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS
AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR SSI. WILL REFINE THIS A BIT IN THE NEXT TAF
UPDATE AT 18Z.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WATERS TODAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE
AREA WATERS EARLY MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS
LOOKS PROBABLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
GENERALLY A LOW RISK OF RIPS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURF
REMAINS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
FIRE WEATHER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
T'STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T'STORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
GOOD LEVEL DISPERSIONS EXPECTED DURING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MORE CLOUDS LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS, WITH HIGHER DISPERSIONS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR T'STORMS
WITH POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG. T'STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EQUIPMENT
THE WSR-88D RADAR LOCATED NEAR THE MOODY AFB NEAR VALDOSTA
REMAINS OFFLINE DUE TO TECHNICAL PROBLEMS. TECHNICIANS ARE
AWAITING CRITICAL PARTS TO RESTORE FUNCTIONALITY. DURING THE
OUTAGE PLEASE UTILIZE OTHER AREA RADARS...KJAX, KTLH, OR KJGX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 71 91 73 / 90 40 20 10
SSI 89 74 90 76 / 60 60 20 10
JAX 89 73 91 74 / 80 50 30 10
SGJ 89 74 91 75 / 70 50 40 10
GNV 90 73 92 73 / 80 30 40 0
OCF 91 74 92 73 / 60 20 40 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-151-152-
250.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page