443
FXUS62 KJAX 201811
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
211 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM WAYCROSS NORTHWARD. AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY WILL BE PRONE TO FLOODING TODAY.
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD T'STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN HAZARDS WIND GUSTS 40 TO 60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES 102 TO 106 DEGREES TODAY AND SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST FL.
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T'STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING
- POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
- SCATTERED STRONG, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT
A BIT SOUTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 145 PM SHOWED AT LOT OF THE AREA HAVE
NOT DEVELOPED CUMULUS OWING TO SOMEWHAT LOWER MOISTURE VALUES,
EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTH ZONES. WE SHOULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR AND SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE TO BUNNELL OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THROUGH
700 MB AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. IN ALL AREAS THOUGH,
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS PWATS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING TOWARD AND INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK COOL FRONT PRESSING TOWARD THE AREA
SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH LOOKS TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN ABOUT 5 PM AND 11 PM. WITH SUFFICIENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF ABOUT 650-800 J/KG AND A MOTION OF ABOUT 15-20
MPH, ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WITH WINDS OF 40-60 MPH. IN ADDITION, NEAR BOUNDARY
PARALLEL FLOW TO UPPER LEVELS AND HIGH PWATS WILL BRING A THREAT
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA WHERE FLOODING RAINS OF 5-10 INCHES OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN A
SWATH FROM COFFEE COUNTY TO PIERCE AND BRANTLEY COUNTIES. FOR
THE MOMENT, IT APPEARS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY WILL BE
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
WHICH IS GOOD NEWS SO ANY REMAINING WATER COULD RECEDE. IN ANY
OF THESE STORMS SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES LOOKS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY WHERE TRAINING OF CELLS OCCURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT, BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT GIVING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS LATE TONIGHT, SOMEWHAT
LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S OR AROUND 70, AND WET GROUNDS, LOW
STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG ARE PLACED IN THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE ON SUNDAY
- HEAT INDICES MAY NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. WITH WESTERLY WINDS REMAINING THE PREDOMINANT FLOW, THE
GULF BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BREEZES WITH MOST ACTIVITY
LIKELY ALONG INLAND LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE I-95 AND US-17 CORRIDORS.
EVEN WITH LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
REMAIN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AREA-WIDE. BY MONDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S
AREA-WIDE, WITH MID 90S IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA, POSSIBLY UPPER 90S FOR
SOME LOCATIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- RETURN TO AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S. DAILY HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR AND ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORY EACH DAY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO SLOW AND TO STALL NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AFTER
MIDWEEK. BUT WITH IT REMAINING NORTH THE AREA, WESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
GULF BREEZE REMAINING THE DOMINANT BREEZE AND CONTINUING TO DIRECT
MOST CONVECTIVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME. WE HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IF NOT IFR.
STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS ALSO INCLUDED FOR GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS IN T'STORMS. MAY STILL BE SOME STORMS AROUND IN THE
23Z-03Z TIME FRAME. SFC WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY OUTSIDE OF
T'STORMS 6-10 KNOTS, THOUGH VARIABLE OR EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SSI
AND SGJ, BUT WIND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW
ABOUT 5 KT EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING BY 14Z.
T'STORMS WILL END AND MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING, PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 03Z/04Z. LATER TONIGHT, SOME
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 09Z-
12Z FROM NEAR JAX TO SSI, BUT SHOULD LIFT/DISPERSE BY 14Z.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT BUT THEN
SHIFT BACK NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL HELP BRING A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
OVER THE AREA WATERS EARLY MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTH. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVEL WINDS LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
SURF CAMS AND WAVE GUIDANCE SHOW SURF ABOUT 1 FOOT, OR MAYBE 2
FT AT THE MOST. SOME WIND SEA SWELLS, FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT WITH
1 FOOT WITH PERIODS OF 6-8 SECONDS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT LOW
RISK SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS WELL. NOTED NWPS RIP CURRENT
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 30 PERCENT. OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ALSO DOMINANT.
FIRE WEATHER
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
GOOD DISPERSIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AS CLOUDS LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHTS. HIGHER DISPERSIONS DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NEXT WEEK AS DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES FOR T'STORMS. A RETURN OF POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG. T'STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EQUIPMENT
THE WSR-88D RADAR LOCATED NEAR THE MOODY AFB NEAR VALDOSTA
REMAINS OFFLINE DUE TO TECHNICAL PROBLEMS. TECHNICIANS ARE
AWAITING CRITICAL PARTS TO RESTORE FUNCTIONALITY. DURING THE
OUTAGE PLEASE UTILIZE OTHER AREA RADARS...KJAX, KTLH, OR KJGX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 89 73 91 / 50 20 10 30
SSI 74 90 77 93 / 70 20 10 30
JAX 71 92 75 95 / 60 40 10 30
SGJ 73 91 76 95 / 60 30 10 30
GNV 72 92 73 95 / 30 40 20 10
OCF 72 92 74 94 / 20 40 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151-152-250.
MARINE...NONE.
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