137
FXUS62 KJAX 211148
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
748 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(2 PM TO 9 PM). STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES & HEAVY DOWNPOURS
- HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- MAIN HAZARDS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
SE US STATES ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES
WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE I-95/US-17 CORRIDORS
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY ISSUANCE OF FLOOD
WATCHES AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH LOWS IN THE
70S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F ACROSS SE GA AND INTO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NE FL, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON,
BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE ON MONDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND REDUCING PWAT VALUES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO BE OVER 100 WITH A LIKELY CHANCE FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
- RETURN TO AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY BOUTS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS, STRONGER DEVELOPMENTS OCCURRING ALONG THE SEAS BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND AREAS OF COLLISION, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY THURSDAY AS A STRETCHED LONGWAVE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONSISTENTLY RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RISE TO LEVELS OF OVER 100.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LOCATIONS WITH
LOWER VSBYS, WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG LIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPO
GROUPS IN PLACE GENERALLY IN THE 18-24Z TIME FRAME FOR MVFR CONDS IN
TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 25-30 KNOTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 01Z, WITH VFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA WATERS MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. STRONGER OFFSHORE
WINDS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR OFFSHORE
WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE
PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SURF/BREAKERS 1-2 FT EARLY THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON MONDAY OCCURRING NORTH OF I-
- 10
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BUILD IN A WEST TO EAST PATTERN TODAY WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENTS OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND ALONG BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. MORE
INHIBITED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHER DISPERSION
VALUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND BORDERING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 71 91 76 / 60 30 20 10
SSI 89 74 93 79 / 50 40 30 0
JAX 90 73 95 77 / 60 30 30 0
SGJ 91 74 95 77 / 70 30 30 0
GNV 91 73 94 75 / 60 20 20 0
OCF 92 73 94 76 / 50 20 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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