269
FXUS62 KJAX 211848 AAA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-55 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- MAIN HAZARDS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, WITH A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF BREEZE. SATELLITE OBS AS
OF 1PM SHOW PWATS REMAINING AROUND THE 2" MARK, WHEREAS HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
ONCE AGAIN AS RAINFALL BECOMES HEAVY, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 45-55
MPH ALSO POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN BY THE EVENING
HOURS AS STORMS PUSH OFFSHORE.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH PEAK HEATING
STILL TO COME, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND NE FL
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF, CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE AREA. A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND NORTHERN GA WHILE A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGHING WILL EXIST FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.
OVERALL, FAIRLY HIGH PWATS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT ABOUT
1.7 TO 2 INCHES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL DIMINISH
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO WHILE DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT, WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS
OWING TO THE DIMINISHED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, PROBABLY
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OF ABOUT 30-50 PERCENT. HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 AND ALONG THE EAST
COAST, AND IN BOTH AREAS THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE WEST AND
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES/INTERACTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COASTLINE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BE JUST OVER 105 WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
- RETURN TO AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT BY SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL, SO
PREVAILING FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND WEST. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN GA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WEAKENS AND BECOME
DIFFUSE BY THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST ALL THESE DAYS, BUT WITH VARYING COVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND SEA BREEZES LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW COVERAGE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST FL,
AND THEN THURSDAY LOOKS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS MOISTURE SURGES
UP AGAIN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE (UP TO 40-60 PERCENT),
AND THEN LOW-END SCATTERED RANGE, OR ABOUT 20-35 PERCENT, FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONSISTENTLY RISE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE LEVELS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE TO LEVELS OF OVER 100-105 IN MANY
AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, TEMPO
GROUPS IN PLACE OVER THE 18-24Z TIME FRAME FOR MVFR CONDS IN TSRA
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 25-30 KNOTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 01Z, WITH VFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA WATERS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTH. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVEL WINDS LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE
PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SURF/BREAKERS 1-2 FT EARLY THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
..AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, AS SOME DRIER .
AIR MOVES IN. WITH TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS HIGHER
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AREAS OF HIGHER DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 91 76 91 / 20 20 10 40
SSI 76 93 79 94 / 30 30 0 40
JAX 74 95 77 96 / 30 30 0 30
SGJ 75 95 77 96 / 20 30 0 20
GNV 73 94 75 96 / 20 20 0 10
OCF 74 94 76 95 / 10 10 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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