087
FXUS62 KJAX 212332
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
732 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TONIGHT:
- ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR TERM MODELS KEEP THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOGETHER
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL END LATER THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF, CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE AREA. A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND NORTHERN GA WHILE A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGHING WILL EXIST FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.
OVERALL, FAIRLY HIGH PWATS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT ABOUT
1.7 TO 2 INCHES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL DIMINISH
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO WHILE DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS OWING TO
THE DIMINISHED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, PROBABLY IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE OF ABOUT 30-50 PERCENT. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 AND ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND
IN BOTH AREAS THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES/INTERACTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO BE JUST OVER 105 WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
- RETURN TO AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT BY SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL, SO
PREVAILING FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND WEST. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN GA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WEAKENS AND BECOME
DIFFUSE BY THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST ALL THESE DAYS, BUT WITH VARYING COVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND SEA BREEZES LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW COVERAGE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST FL,
AND THEN THURSDAY LOOKS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS MOISTURE SURGES
UP AGAIN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE, AND THEN ON LOW- END
SCATTERED RANGE ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONSISTENTLY RISE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE LEVELS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE TO LEVELS OF OVER 100-105 IN MANY
AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD CAUSE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL INTITIATE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA WATERS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTH. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVEL WINDS LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE
PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SURF/BREAKERS 1-2 FT EARLY THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, AS SOME DRIER .
AIR MOVES IN. WITH TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS HIGHER
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AREAS OF HIGHER DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 91 75 92 / 30 30 10 40
SSI 76 93 79 95 / 30 40 10 40
JAX 74 95 76 97 / 30 30 20 20
SGJ 75 94 77 97 / 30 40 20 20
GNV 73 94 75 96 / 20 20 10 10
OCF 74 94 76 95 / 20 10 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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