834
FXUS62 KJAX 220411
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1211 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS:
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HOT AND HUMID WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
- HEAT INDICES 104-108F NE FL/COASTAL SE GA AND 102-106F INLAND SE GA
EARLY THIS MORNING: ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE
FL/GA BORDER SOUTHWARD ACROSS INLAND NE FL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS
THE E-SE AND WASH OUT THROUGH 2-3AM, LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 70S. MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM SUNDAY'S
RAINFALL WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER INLAND
AREAS, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE ACROSS INLAND
SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF INLAND NORTH FL.
MONDAY: CURRENT PWATS IN THE 2.0-2.3 INCH RANGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE SEASONABLE PWATS IN
THE 1.7-2.0 INCH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL LOWER STORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE 30-50% RANGE WITH MAINLY SCATTERED STORMS BETWEEN
THE I-95 AND US-301 CORRIDORS AS STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVEMENT
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND STILL EXPECT STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-60MPH. LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE
WILL LESSEN THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
POSSIBLE WITH QUICK 1-2 INCH TOTALS STILL POSSIBLE. TIMING OF STORMS
STILL IN THE 2-8PM TIME FRAME.
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL CHANCES AND/OR TIMING
TODAY, SO THIS WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES.
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUPPORTING LOWER 90S INLAND SE GA AND HEAT
INDICES OF 102-106F, AND MORE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR COASTAL SE GA
AND MOST OF NE FL WITH HEAT INDICES OF 104-108F. WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS TO START THE DAY AND THE TREND FOR THE MODELS TO UNDER
ESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT ANY TRENDS TOWARDS
LOWER PWATS AND DELAYED AND/OR LOWER STORM COVERAGE A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-95/US-17/US-301 CORRIDORS OF
COASTAL SE GA AND PORTIONS OF NE FL TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
PINNED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
MONDAY NIGHT: ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD
FADE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND END OR PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC
JUST AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOWER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER CHANCES FOR ANY FOG POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM OUT OF THE NORTH WILL
EXTEND OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA, HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED
COMPARED WITH EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOLLOWING THE PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH STRONGER
DEVELOPMENTS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND AREAS
OF COLLISION WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENTS OCCURRING . HIGH
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COASTLINE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO BE OVER 100
WITH A LIKELY CHANCE FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND
- MORE ABUNDANT CONVECTION ON THURSDAY BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD BY
THE WEEKEND
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY AS
MORE MOIST AIR ALONG WITH MILD UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY CROSSES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE INHIBITED CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OUT OF THE EAST
ACTS TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONSISTENTLY RISE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE TO LEVELS OF
OVER 100.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER INLAND NE FL WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE NE FL
TERMINALS WITH BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH ABOUT 07-08Z, THEN GENERALLY JUST
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDS, ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES OF MVFR FOG AT
INLAND LOCATIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE IN THE 09-12Z, MAINLY AT VQQ/GNV.
LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES AT TAF SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR TSRA, MAINLY IN
THE 18-24Z TIME FRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS. STORM CHANCES FADE AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM 01-06Z.
MARINE
A PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEK
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSH THROUGH THE SE US STATES BUT CONTINUE TO
STALL NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT TO BOATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANY
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE
PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SURF/BREAKERS 1-2 FT EARLY THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON TODAY AND TUESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. MORE REDUCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREAS OF HIGHER DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
TODAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO HIGHER TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS AND MIXING
HEIGHTS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 74 91 73 / 40 20 30 10
SSI 91 78 94 77 / 40 20 30 20
JAX 94 75 97 77 / 40 20 20 30
SGJ 94 76 97 77 / 40 20 20 20
GNV 94 75 95 76 / 30 10 10 10
OCF 94 74 95 77 / 20 10 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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