523
FXUS62 KJAX 221303
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
903 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
A FEW THINGS TO NOTE ON WITH THIS MORNING'S OBSERVATIONS, BUT
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE A SLIGHT DROP IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS
MEASURED AT NEARLY TWO INCHES THIS MORNING (AROUND THE "TOP-
END" OF CLIMO AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE), THERE SHOULD BE A SMALL
PULL-BACK WITH "LESS MOIST" AIR ADVECTING OVERHEAD ON DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS TO BEGIN TO INITIATE
AROUND 12 PM IN THE WESTERLY DOMINANT FLOW WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS
MOVING AROUND 20 MPH WHILE TREKKING EASTWARD.
STILL TRACKING ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT PEAK HEAT INDEX
READINGS PRIOR TO THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. STILL
DOESN'T APPEAR THAT IT'LL BE HOT ENOUGH TO HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HOT AND HUMID WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
- HEAT INDICES 104-108F NE FL/COASTAL SE GA AND 102-106F INLAND
SE GA
CURRENT PWATS IN THE 2.0-2.3 INCH RANGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE SEASONABLE PWATS
IN THE 1.7-2.0 INCH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL LOWER STORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 30-50% RANGE WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
STORMS BETWEEN THE I-95 AND US-301 CORRIDORS AS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND STILL
EXPECT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
40-60MPH. LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THE OVERALL
FLOODING THREAT, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE WITH QUICK
1-2 INCH TOTALS STILL POSSIBLE. TIMING OF STORMS STILL IN THE
2-8PM TIME FRAME.
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL CHANCES AND/OR
TIMING TODAY, SO THIS WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUPPORTING LOWER 90S INLAND SE
GA AND HEAT INDICES OF 102-106F, AND MORE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
FOR COASTAL SE GA AND MOST OF NE FL WITH HEAT INDICES OF
104-108F. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS TO START THE DAY AND THE TREND
FOR THE MODELS TO UNDER ESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES WITH
THIS PACKAGE, BUT ANY TRENDS TOWARDS LOWER PWATS AND DELAYED
AND/OR LOWER STORM COVERAGE A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE I-95/US-17/US-301 CORRIDORS OF COASTAL SE GA AND
PORTIONS OF NE FL TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE PINNED EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE.
TONIGHT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD
FADE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND END OR PUSH INTO THE
ATLANTIC JUST AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOWER COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER CHANCES FOR ANY
FOG POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM OUT OF THE NORTH WILL
EXTEND OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA, HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED
COMPARED WITH EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOLLOWING THE PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH STRONGER
DEVELOPMENTS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND AREAS
OF COLLISION WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENTS OCCURRING . HIGH
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COASTLINE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO BE OVER 100
WITH A LIKELY CHANCE FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY HEAT INDICES NEAR 105
- WEEKEND HEAT INDEX NEAR 110 INLAND, POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM RISK, LESS WEEKEND COVERAGE
DAILY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AFTER THURSDAY WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW-MOVING, SOUTHWARD-
ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT INTERACTS WITH SEA BREEZES UNDER A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION.
BY FRIDAY, LESS RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AS
MUCH DRIER AIR (BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPTABLE WATER)
INVADES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GOMEX. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA WILL BE
GENERALLY < 20% BY LATE WEEKEND WITH HIGHER DAILY RAIN CHANCES OF 30-
40% WILL FOCUS ACROSS NORTHEAST FL WITH A MORE DOMINANT WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE REGIME UNDER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WITH THE SEA BREEZE MERGER FOCUSED TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST NEAR BOUNDARY
MERGERS.
WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND BUILDING THICKNESSES UNDER THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE, TEMPERATURES AND DAILY HEAT INDICES INCREASE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S DAILY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-110, PEAKING THIS
WEEKEND. LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-112 DEGF MAYBE REACHED
AT TIMES. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A SHORT DURATION MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION, IT APPEARS IT'LL BE
LOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECENT CHANCES (40-50%) FOR TSRA
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19Z-24Z. UPGRADED A FEW
AIRFIELDS (KSGJ/KCRG/KGNV) TO TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON WINDOW. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT REMAINING SITES, PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. CONVECTION WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, IFR VISIBILITY WITH THE DOWNPOURS AND LOWER
CEILINGS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT; HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
A PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEK
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSH THROUGH THE SE US STATES BUT CONTINUE TO
STALL NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT TO BOATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANY
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE
PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SURF/BREAKERS 1-2 FT EARLY THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON TODAY AND TUESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES. MORE REDUCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. AREAS OF HIGHER DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY AND
TUESDAY DUE TO HIGHER TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 74 91 73 / 40 20 30 10
SSI 92 77 95 77 / 40 20 30 20
JAX 94 75 97 77 / 40 20 20 30
SGJ 94 76 97 77 / 40 20 20 20
GNV 94 75 95 76 / 30 10 10 10
OCF 94 74 95 77 / 20 10 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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