838
FXUS62 KJAX 230415
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1215 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HOT CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX IN THE 102-108 DEGREE RANGE
- SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
LATEST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE US STATES
WILL MAKE A BIT FURTHER PROGRESSION THAN EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH INTO SE GA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AND I-
10 CORRIDOR, WHICH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER
SUNSET. A STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES ALOFT ALONG WITH COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-60 MPH AS THE MAIN THREAT,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL. TIMING OF STORMS GENERALLY IN THE 3PM-9PM TIME FRAME.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR SE GA WITH HEAT INDICES OF 102-106F AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S FOR NE FL WITH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 104-108F RANGE,
THE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MIXED ENOUGH TO
KEEP DEW POINT TEMPS LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES.
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION AND PREVENTS ANY OVERNIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND SE GA AND LOWER/MIDDLE 70S FOR
COASTAL SE GA AND NE FL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LOWER STORM COVERAGE TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY IMPACTING THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN WAYCROSS TO THE FL I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME COINCIDES ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING WASHED-OUT FRONTAL ZONE AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WHERE SEA BREEZES AND FRONTAL
ACTIVITY CONVERGES. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH
AND BEGINS TO STALL AND LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WEDNESDAY, MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH PWAT < 10TH PERCENTILE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES < 15%
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE
SOUTHWARD AND TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST, WITH STORM MOTION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING AND CLEARING SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BY 8 PM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 90S WITH DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES 95-
100 ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA TO AROUND 105 DEGF ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY HEAT INDICES 105-108 DEGF
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM RISK
PATTERN FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO MONDAY. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONSISTENTLY RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS WITH MAX TEMPS POTENTIALLY RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES RISE TO LEVELS OF OVER 100.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH JUST LOW CHANCES OF MVFR
STRATUS TOWARDS SUNRISE, AND WITH PROBS LESS THAN 20% WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR NOW. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 12-13 KNOTS
FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY 13-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT TIMES. PRE
FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE 20-24Z TIME
FRAME AND WILL CONTINUE PROB30 GROUPS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
END BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 03Z.
MARINE
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS LOW AND MARITIME CONDITIONS
FAIR. OFFSHORE FLOW AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE WATERS AND STALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING THIS WEEKEND. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN TEN KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIME, NIGHTLY SOUTHERLY
WIND SURGES MAY LEAD TO EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OFFSHORE DURING
PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE
PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SURF/BREAKERS 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION INLAND TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY...
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
MPH FOR TODAY, AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT SLOWLY EDGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS BETWEEN WAYCROSS AND THE I-
10 CORRIDOR. WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL FL WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA BUT
CONTINUED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN UNDER NORTHWEST
WINDS, WITH AN AFTERNOON EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND TOWARD
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS
INCLUDE LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING ON THE SATILLA RIVER BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM AND IMPACT THE FORECAST POINTS AT WAYCROSS AND
ATKINSON THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 73 91 73 / 20 0 10 20
SSI 94 76 91 78 / 30 10 20 10
JAX 96 76 95 76 / 40 20 40 30
SGJ 97 77 93 76 / 20 20 50 30
GNV 95 75 95 74 / 20 30 30 20
OCF 95 76 93 75 / 0 30 40 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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