525
FXUS62 KJAX 231320
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK. DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 105-110 POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK
UPDATE
BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDING AND HIRES GUIDANCE, RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED T'STORMS SOUTH OF US 82.
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING DOES CONFIRM THE STEEP MODEL-
ADVERTISED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER, POSSIBLY SEVERE,
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHING. THE
ONE THING WORKING AGAINST HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE PULSE T'STORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE WAKE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH, WHICH IS LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CONSIDERING ALL THE OTHER FACTORS, THERE IS STILL THAT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-
10 CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY T'STORM HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
THE BREEZY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY GIVEN STORM THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WITH STRONGER PULSES CAPABLE OF GUSTS
50-60 MPH. ALSO, WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORM CELL MOTION WILL BE AROUND
25 MPH, THE FRONT-PARALLEL STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO ELEVATE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING AS TRAINING CONVECTION DEVELOPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 82 IN SOUTHEAST GA.
IN TERMS OF TIMING, THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS ALREADY FAVORED SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL AS OF 9 AM. ANTICIPATE
GROWING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS THAT IS EXTENDING FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
INTO SE GA.
NO CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED HEAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES PUSHING INTO THE 100S AND CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HOT CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX IN THE 102-108 DEGREE RANGE
- SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
LATEST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE US STATES
WILL MAKE A BIT FURTHER PROGRESSION THAN EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH INTO SE GA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AND I-
10 CORRIDOR, WHICH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER
SUNSET. A STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES ALOFT ALONG WITH COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-60 MPH AS THE MAIN THREAT,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL. TIMING OF STORMS GENERALLY IN THE 3PM-9PM TIME FRAME.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR SE GA WITH HEAT INDICES OF 102-106F AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S FOR NE FL WITH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 104-108F RANGE,
THE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MIXED ENOUGH TO
KEEP DEW POINT TEMPS LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES.
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION AND PREVENTS ANY OVERNIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND SE GA AND LOWER/MIDDLE 70S FOR
COASTAL SE GA AND NE FL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LOWER STORM COVERAGE TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY IMPACTING THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN WAYCROSS TO THE FL I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME COINCIDES ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING WASHED-OUT FRONTAL ZONE AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WHERE SEA BREEZES AND FRONTAL
ACTIVITY CONVERGES. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH
AND BEGINS TO STALL AND LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WEDNESDAY, MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH PWAT < 10TH PERCENTILE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES < 15%
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE
SOUTHWARD AND TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST, WITH STORM MOTION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING AND CLEARING SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BY 8 PM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 90S WITH DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES 95-
100 ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA TO AROUND 105 DEGF ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY HEAT INDICES 105-108 DEGF
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM RISK
PATTERN FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO MONDAY. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONSISTENTLY RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS WITH MAX TEMPS POTENTIALLY RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES RISE TO LEVELS OF OVER 100.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR BUT SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 15Z
AS CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. POOL OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING FRONT WILL FUEL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST FOR TERMINALS ACROSS NE FL MAINLY FROM 20Z-02Z
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE PRIMARY
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE FL OVERNIGHT. WITH CONVECTION
TODAY, STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
DUE TO THE CAPACITY FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-60 MPH.
TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING
WIND/GUST AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS LOW AND MARITIME CONDITIONS
FAIR. OFFSHORE FLOW AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE WATERS AND STALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING THIS WEEKEND. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN TEN KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIME, NIGHTLY SOUTHERLY
WIND SURGES MAY LEAD TO EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OFFSHORE DURING
PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE
PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SURF/BREAKERS 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION INLAND TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY...
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
MPH FOR TODAY, AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT SLOWLY EDGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS BETWEEN WAYCROSS AND THE I-
10 CORRIDOR. WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL FL WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA BUT
CONTINUED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN UNDER NORTHWEST
WINDS, WITH AN AFTERNOON EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND TOWARD
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS
INCLUDE LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING ON THE SATILLA RIVER BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND IMPACT THE FORECAST POINTS AT
WAYCROSS AND ATKINSON THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 69 90 70 / 30 10 0 0
SSI 93 74 89 78 / 40 20 0 0
JAX 95 73 94 74 / 50 30 0 0
SGJ 96 75 92 76 / 30 40 10 0
GNV 95 74 94 72 / 40 40 0 0
OCF 94 75 94 73 / 20 30 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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