797
FXUS62 KJAX 240515
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
115 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY
- DANGEROUSLY HOT & HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN & MON, WHEN VALUES APPROACH 110
- MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE
RATHER UNUSUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A WEAK "COOL" FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR
LATE JUNE WILL CLEAR SE GA THIS MORNING AND STALL ACROSS NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH IN ALOFT WITH PWATS
DROPPING TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS SE GA AND INTO THE 1.2 TO
1.4 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE FL. THIS WILL BASICALLY SHUTDOWN DIURNAL
CONVECTION CHANCES FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD ACROSS SE GA TO
AROUND 10% OR LESS. MEANWHILE IN AREAS ACROSS NE FL CLOSER TO THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND /OR ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
ANY SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM GAINESVILLE TO AUGUSTINE IN THE 3PM-9PM TIME FRAME, AND MOSTLY
BETWEEN THE I-95 AND US 301 CORRIDORS ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT, MAINLY FOR
PUTNAM, FLAGLER AND MARION COUNTIES.
DESPITE THE WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE REGION,
TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S INLAND, AND EVEN SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND
NE FL, WHILE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES "COOLER" THAN YESTERDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW PEAKS TEMPS OUT
CLOSER TO 90F. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE "LOWER" HUMIDITY VALUES AS DEW POINT TEMPS MIX OUT INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS SE GA, UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR, AND LOWER 70S FOR THE REST OF NE FL. DESPITE THE HOT TEMPS
THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HOLD HEAT INDICES IN THE MID/UPPER
90S ACROSS SE GA AND AROUND 100F ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND INTO
THE 102-106F RANGE FOR THE REST OF NE FL TO THE SOUTH OF I-10.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THURSDAY, A DAMPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL BACK WINDS ALOFT TO THE SW AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING
ALOFT WELL SE OF THE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL DELIVER HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES 1.5-1.75 INCHES. THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
GULF SEABREEZE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE I-95 COVERAGE
SLIGHTLY AS THE GULF SEABREEZE AND STORM OUTFLOWS MERGE WITH THE
SLOWER MOVING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING CONVECTION OVER INLAND SE GA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
SLOW STORM MOTIONS THURSDAY WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.
FRIDAY, A LITTLE FASTER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE REGION AS BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES
WILL REMAIN, BUT LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP T'STORM CHANCES
TO WIDELY SCATTERED AS THE GULF SEABREEZE PUSHES WELL INLAND WITH
A FEW T'STORM MERGERS ALONG THE US-17 CORRIDOR. T'STORMS WILL
END BEFORE 10PM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE MID 90S ALONG WEST OF I-95 ACROSS OUR
INLAND ZONES COOLING TO THE LOW 90S WEST OF US-441 OVER SE GA
AND ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS
WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
- HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND INTO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY.
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN CORRIDOR
- NUMEROUS T'STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THIS WEEKEND, MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
RETROGRADE AND BUILD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS SURFACE BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS INTO CENTRAL FL. ALOFT, LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY. THE
SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE JUST TO THE NW OF THE REGION
WILL LIMIT T'STORM CHANCES TO WIDELY ISOLATED OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 301 WITH WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS OVER THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL SEND HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL RISE TO 104-108, VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
DAYTIME HUMIDITY REMAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
MONDAY, AN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID SOUTH AND MID MS
VALLEY. A SURFACE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON AS HIGHS INLAND RISE
INTO THE UPPER 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT PROVIDING PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INLAND PROGRESSION OF
BOTH SEABREEZES AND INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SEASONABLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS T'STORM COVERAGE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BUMP HIGHER INTO THE 106-110 RANGE AS DEWPOINTS RISE
TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
TUESDAY, STRONG RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE SW INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF T'STORMS
WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST NORTHWARD AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PRESSES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND
NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS PUSHING INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL SHUT
DOWN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT NE FL/COASTAL SE GA
TERMINALS AND WITH RAINFALL CHANCES LESS THAN 20% AT ALL TERMINALS
WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIGHTER WINDS
AND SOME CLEARING VFR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LOW MVFR BR POTENTIAL AT GNV/VQQ. MORNING DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT GNV/SGJ WILL PROVIDE SOME 20-30%
CHANCES OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN THE 11-15Z TIME FRAME, BUT PROBS TOO
LOW FOR ANY TEMPO GROUPS AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF JUST SCT 015-
025 FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DECREASING WINDS AND MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD (06Z THURSDAY).
MARINE
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
WHICH LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASES TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS EACH
EVENING BEGINNING FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SURF OF LESS THAN 2 FEET. MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT
UPTICK BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SURF AROUND 2 FEET AND
POTENTIAL MODERATE RISK AT LOCAL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH EXCEPTION OF
NORTH CENTRAL FL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CONVERGENCE OF EAST AND
WEST COAST SEABREEZES NEAR A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE
SCATTERED T'STORMS INTO OCALA NATIONAL FOREST AND FLAGLER COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL 5-10 MPH WITH THE AFTERNOON
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE TURNING WINDS EASTERLY 8-12 MPH SHIFTING TO I-95
BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO
100-105 SOUTH OF I-10. MIN RH VALUES INLAND WILL BE 35-40 PERCENT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MOISTURE WILL RETURN ALOFT WITH A RETURN OF
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW YIELDING WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T'STORM
COVERAGE WITH ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SHIFTING WEST ACROSS I-95 IN THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND NEAR HIGHWAY 301 AFTER SUNSET. INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH DAY WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS PEAKING 104-108.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY, SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
TUESDAY BETWEEN WAYCROSS AND GAINESVILLE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
T'STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH THREAT FOR GUSTY WET DOWNBURST
WINDS OVER 50 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SATILLA RIVER BASIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND IMPACT THE FORECAST POINTS
AT WAYCROSS AND ATKINSON THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 70 93 73 / 10 10 20 30
SSI 88 77 89 79 / 0 0 20 10
JAX 94 73 95 76 / 10 10 50 10
SGJ 92 75 93 77 / 10 10 40 10
GNV 96 72 96 74 / 10 10 20 10
OCF 96 73 95 75 / 30 10 30 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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