765
FXUS62 KJAX 241153
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
753 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY
- DANGEROUSLY HOT & HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN & MON, WHEN
VALUES APPROACH 110
- MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER
IN SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FL, SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE
RATHER UNUSUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A WEAK "COOL" FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR LATE JUNE WILL CLEAR SE GA THIS MORNING AND STALL ACROSS
NE FL THIS AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH IN ALOFT
WITH PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS SE GA AND
INTO THE 1.2 TO 1.4 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE FL. THIS WILL BASICALLY
SHUTDOWN DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD ACROSS SE GA TO AROUND 10% OR LESS. MEANWHILE IN AREAS
ACROSS NE FL CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A FEW
MORNING SHOWERS AND /OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. ANY SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO
AUGUSTINE IN THE 3PM-9PM TIME FRAME, AND MOSTLY BETWEEN THE I-95
AND US 301 CORRIDORS ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT, MAINLY
FOR PUTNAM, FLAGLER AND MARION COUNTIES.
DESPITE THE WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE REGION,
TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE WITH MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S INLAND, AND EVEN SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS
INLAND NE FL, WHILE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES "COOLER" THAN YESTERDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW PEAKS
TEMPS OUT CLOSER TO 90F. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE "LOWER" HUMIDITY VALUES AS DEW POINT TEMPS
MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS SE GA, UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND LOWER 70S FOR THE REST OF NE FL.
DESPITE THE HOT TEMPS THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HOLD HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS SE GA AND AROUND 100F ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE 102-106F RANGE FOR THE REST OF NE
FL TO THE SOUTH OF I-10.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THURSDAY, A DAMPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL BACK WINDS ALOFT TO THE SW AS BERMUDA HIGH
RIDGING ALOFT WELL SE OF THE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL
DELIVER HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES 1.5-1.75 INCHES. THE SW FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE GULF SEABREEZE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ALONG THE I-95 COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AS THE GULF SEABREEZE AND STORM
OUTFLOWS MERGE WITH THE SLOWER MOVING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. THE
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER INLAND SE GA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
THURSDAY WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.
FRIDAY, A LITTLE FASTER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE REGION AS BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN, BUT LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP
T'STORM CHANCES TO WIDELY SCATTERED AS THE GULF SEABREEZE PUSHES
WELL INLAND WITH A FEW T'STORM MERGERS ALONG THE US-17
CORRIDOR. T'STORMS WILL END BEFORE 10PM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
EXPECTED ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE MID 90S ALONG WEST OF I-95 ACROSS OUR
INLAND ZONES COOLING TO THE LOW 90S WEST OF US-441 OVER SE GA
AND ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS
WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
- HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, AND INTO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY.
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
- NUMEROUS T'STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THIS WEEKEND, MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
WILL RETROGRADE AND BUILD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS INTO CENTRAL FL.
ALOFT, LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE JUST TO THE NW
OF THE REGION WILL LIMIT T'STORM CHANCES TO WIDELY ISOLATED
OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
T'STORMS OVER THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
RISING HEIGHTS WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO
104-108, VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS AS DAYTIME HUMIDITY
REMAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
MONDAY, AN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND MID MS VALLEY. A SURFACE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS INLAND RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW INLAND PROGRESSION OF BOTH SEABREEZES AND
INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SEASONABLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS T'STORM COVERAGE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BUMP HIGHER INTO THE 106-110 RANGE AS DEWPOINTS RISE TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
TUESDAY, STRONG RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW
PUSHING THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SW INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF T'STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST NORTHWARD AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT PRESSES IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z,
ESPECIALLY AT VQQ AND GNV. WE WILL LIKELY INCLUDE PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT VQQ AFTER 06Z THURSDAY DURING THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT
5-10 KNOTS TOWARDS 14Z, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT SGJ AND THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
SURFACE WINDS WILL OTHERWISE SHIFT TO EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
AT SSI AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AFTER 19Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER
01Z THIS EVENING, WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY WHICH LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASES TO
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS EACH EVENING BEGINNING FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH SURF OF LESS THAN 2 FEET. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT UPTICK BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SURF AROUND 2 FEET
AND POTENTIAL MODERATE RISK AT LOCAL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH EXCEPTION
OF NORTH CENTRAL FL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CONVERGENCE OF
EAST AND WEST COAST SEABREEZES NEAR A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CREATE SCATTERED T'STORMS INTO OCALA NATIONAL FOREST AND
FLAGLER COUNTY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL 5-10
MPH WITH THE AFTERNOON ATLANTIC SEABREEZE TURNING WINDS EASTERLY
8-12 MPH SHIFTING TO I-95 BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO 100-105 SOUTH OF I-10.
MIN RH VALUES INLAND WILL BE 35-40 PERCENT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MOISTURE WILL RETURN ALOFT WITH A RETURN OF
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW YIELDING WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T'STORM
COVERAGE WITH ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SHIFTING WEST ACROSS I-95 IN
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND NEAR HIGHWAY 301 AFTER SUNSET.
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TRANSPORT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS PEAKING 104-108.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY, SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
TUESDAY BETWEEN WAYCROSS AND GAINESVILLE. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE T'STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH THREAT FOR GUSTY WET
DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 50 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SATILLA RIVER BASIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND IMPACT THE FORECAST POINTS
AT WAYCROSS AND ATKINSON THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 70 93 73 / 10 10 20 30
SSI 90 76 90 79 / 0 0 20 10
JAX 94 73 95 76 / 10 10 50 10
SGJ 92 75 93 77 / 10 10 40 10
GNV 96 72 96 74 / 10 10 20 10
OCF 96 73 95 75 / 30 10 30 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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