066
FXUS62 KJAX 241803
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
203 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY HOT & HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN & MON, WHEN VALUES APPROACH
110
- MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST
GA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10, WITH WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE (1022 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. ALOFT...SUBTLE TROUGHING WAS SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, WHILE STOUT RIDGING CENTERED OVER WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WAS EXTENDING ITS AXIS
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATEST GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 1 INCH FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, WHILE VALUES RANGED
FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. A HEALTHY
CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE MORE SEASONABLY HUMID AIR
MASS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INLAND. DEWPOINTS WERE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10, WHILE LOWER 70S PREVAIL FOR
COASTAL NORTHEAST AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL FL AS OF 17Z.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL.
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
SEA AND RIVER BREEZES TO PROPAGATE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
DEEP- LAYERED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST AND PERHAPS FOR OTHER LOCATIONS
SUCH AS FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING TROUGH COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL TO
BRIEFLY PULSE TO STRONG LEVELS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, ALONG WITH CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY TO MID- EVENING HOURS TONIGHT,
WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE CONTINUING FOR THE REST
OF OUR REGION.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SOAR TO THE LOW AND MID 90S AT
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DEWPOINTS FALLING
THROUGH THE 60S WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL. MEANWHILE,
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL. AN ONSHORE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP COASTAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING
OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL PUSH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND A LINGERING DRY AIR MASS SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHILE LOWS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WIDELY SCATTERED INLAND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS CLOSER TO I-95 AND
COASTLINE FRIDAY.
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THURSDAY: REVERTING BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN AS THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE DISSOLVES THROUGH THE
MORNING, LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. LINGERING
DRY MID LEVEL WILL MOISTEN UP LATE IN THE DAY BUT SHOULD
MINIMIZE T'STORM COVERAGE, FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG THE US 301 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES WILL ZIPPER SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE
THE TYPICAL DOWNWARD TREND WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY, A
FEW OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE GA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE
BACK QUICKLY WITH HIGHS IN LOW 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS BACK
INTO THE 100S.
FRIDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INCREASE. PUSHING THE FOCUS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG
CONVECTION EASTWARD TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE,
INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE AT MODERATE LEVELS AND SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG PULSE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN PUSHING TOWARD THE MID 90S. BETTER
MIXING WITH A BREEZIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX
FROM PUSHING INTO THE HEAT ADVISORY RANGE BUT INCREASING
COVERAGE IN 100-105 DEGREE "FEELS LIKE" TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONSIDERATIONS SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY.
- LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH NUMEROUS T'STORMS RETURNING MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFIED
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL MEANDER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGING
PUTS THE REGION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND LEAVES THE
DOOR OPEN TO GLANCING SHORTWAVE OR "RIDGE RIDERS" EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TWO CONSIDERATIONS WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING DEEP MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION BENEATH THE CONGEALING UPPER
RIDGING. RIGHT NOW, HAVE MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON T'STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT AN UPWARD TREND
IS POSSIBLE IF DEEPER MOISTURE ENDS UP TRAPPED BENEATH THE
RIDGE. WITH THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS,
CLIMBING ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE, WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH MAY REQUIRE "HEAT ADVISORY" CONSIDERATIONS,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE
FRONT AND A "RIDGE RIDER" MID LEVEL WAVE WILL SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS T'STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TIMING WILL
INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BUT EXPECT DANGEROUS LEVELS OF
HEAT TO CONTINUE. A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 07Z AT VQQ, WHERE WE HAVE
INDICATED PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES, WITH PERIODS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES LIKELY AFTER 09Z AS HIGH CLOUD COVER POTENTIALLY
THINS OUT AND SHIFTS SOUTH OF OUR REGION. A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES WAS ALSO INDICATED AT GNV AROUND SUNRISE AS HIGH
CLOUD COVER SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INDICATE SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME. THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES, WITH EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SGJ THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PREVAIL AT SSI. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ELSEWHERE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 20Z, WITH WINDS AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS THEN
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY AND INCREASING TO 5-10
KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES WESTWARD. SURFACE WINDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 03Z WHILE DIMINISHING.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN RESUME TOWARDS 14Z
THURSDAY, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 16Z.
MARINE
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST FL
WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, CREATING A PREVAILING
WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL THEN PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY, PROVIDING
AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THIS TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LOWER END MODERATE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT AREA BEACHES AS ONSHORE WINDS
BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH ONSHORE
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS
WEEKEND TO MAINTAIN A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON, HUMIDITY WILL
TREND HIGHER AND BACK TO TYPICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REMNANT FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA. RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZES WITH BEST CHANCES LINING UP WHERE THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONVERGE, WHICH APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE US 301 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AND THEN THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRIDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HEAT BUILDING BACK TO THE MID 90S. MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN BECOMING MORE LIKELY MONDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA. HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGHER DISPERSION, MAINLY INLAND
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER BASIN, WITH
WATER LEVELS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAUGE
NEAR WAYCROSS BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MINOR FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 93 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
SSI 76 90 79 92 / 10 20 10 30
JAX 71 95 76 96 / 10 50 10 40
SGJ 74 93 77 94 / 10 40 10 30
GNV 71 96 74 96 / 10 20 10 30
OCF 72 95 75 95 / 20 30 10 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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