300
FXUS62 KJAX 250031
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
831 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY
- DANGEROUSLY HOT & HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN & MON, WHEN VALUES APPROACH 110
- MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- ISOLATED STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WIDELY SCATTERED INLAND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS CLOSER TO I-95 AND
COASTLINE FRIDAY
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THURSDAY: REVERTING BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN AS THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE DISSOLVES THROUGH THE MORNING,
LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. LINGERING DRY MID LEVEL
WILL MOISTEN UP LATE IN THE DAY BUT SHOULD MINIMIZE T'STORM
COVERAGE, FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ALONG THE US 301 CORRIDOR WHERE THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZES WILL ZIPPER SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE TYPICAL DOWNWARD TREND WILL OCCUR
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY, A FEW OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS MAY KEEP SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE GA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY WITH HIGHS IN LOW 90S AND HEAT
INDEX READINGS BACK INTO THE 100S.
FRIDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WHILE DEEP MOISTURE ALSO
INCREASE. PUSHING THE FOCUS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION
EASTWARD TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE, INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE AT
MODERATE LEVELS AND SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG PULSE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN PUSHING TOWARD
THE MID 90S. BETTER MIXING WITH A BREEZIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDEX FROM PUSHING INTO THE HEAT ADVISORY RANGE BUT
INCREASING COVERAGE IN 100-105 DEGREE "FEELS LIKE" TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONSIDERATIONS SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY.
- LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, NUMEROUS T'STORMS RETURNING MONDAY
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFIED
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT WILL
MEANDER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGING PUTS THE
REGION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN TO
GLANCING SHORTWAVE OR "RIDGE RIDERS" EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO
CONSIDERATIONS WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
SUPPRESSION BENEATH THE CONGEALING UPPER RIDGING. RIGHT NOW, HAVE
MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T'STORM POTENTIAL
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT AN UPWARD TREND IS POSSIBLE IF DEEPER MOISTURE
ENDS UP TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE. WITH THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND
WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS, CLIMBING ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH
PERCENTILE, WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY REQUIRE "HEAT ADVISORY"
CONSIDERATIONS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE FRONT AND A "RIDGE
RIDER" MID LEVEL WAVE WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS T'STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TIMING WILL INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BUT
EXPECT DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT TO CONTINUE. A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE
COAST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAWN AT KVQQ, AND KGNV, OTHERWISE
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS WITH PROB30 GROUPS.
MARINE
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
ALLOWING FOR THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND ITS
AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, CREATING A PREVAILING WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
ON MONDAY, PROVIDING AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LOWER END MODERATE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT AREA BEACHES AS ONSHORE WINDS
BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND TO MAINTAIN A
LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON, HUMIDITY WILL TREND
HIGHER AND BACK TO TYPICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
REMNANT FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA. RETURNING MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZES WITH BEST
CHANCES LINING UP WHERE THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONVERGE, WHICH APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE US 301 CORRIDOR
THURSDAY AND THEN THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT BUILDING BACK TO
THE MID 90S. MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN BECOMING MORE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGHER
DISPERSION, MAINLY INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 93 73 92 / 0 20 20 30
SSI 76 88 79 92 / 0 10 20 40
JAX 71 94 76 95 / 0 40 20 60
SGJ 74 92 77 93 / 10 40 30 50
GNV 71 95 73 95 / 10 40 10 40
OCF 72 93 74 93 / 30 40 10 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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