161
FXUS62 KJAX 250427
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1227 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
- DANGEROUSLY HOT & HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN & MON, PEAK HEAT INDEX: 108 -110 F
- MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA, BETWEEN THE I-95 AND US-301 CORRIDORS
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE FL WILL DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE AND
PWATS INTO THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE BACK NORTHWARD INTO NE FL,
WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE INLAND MOVING EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN THE I-95 AND US-301
CORRIDORS, STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-60 MPH, ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOTION, THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE ALONG CELL MERGERS FROM THE JAX METRO AREA SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. TIMING IS GENERALLY 3PM-9PM.
FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS SE GA, THE DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE
SLOWER TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NE, AS A CURRENT SHORTWAVE IN THE
MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SE US STATES WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS
1.6-1.8") AND LIFT, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS
IT PRESSES INLAND. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS 40-60MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. TIMING OF
STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS SE GA MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER FROM 4PM-10PM.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND LOWER 90S COASTAL NE FL, ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES UP TO 102-106F.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES LINGERING ACROSS SE GA AND DEW POINT
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S WILL COMBINE WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 90S TO PRODUCE SEASONABLE HEAT INDICES OF 98-102F THIS
AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AROUND
SUNSET WILL DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OR PUSH NE ACROSS
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN BY THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. FAIR SKIES AND
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE USUAL
MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80F ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. SOME CONVERGENCE IN SW FLOW ALONG THE NE GULF MAY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST THAT MAY DRIFT
INTO GILCHRIST COUNTY TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
FRIDAY, A LITTLE FASTER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
REGION AS BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES WILL
REMAIN, BUT LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP T'STORM CHANCES TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AS THE GULF SEABREEZE PUSHES WELL INLAND WITH A FEW
T'STORM MERGERS ALONG THE US-17 CORRIDOR. T'STORMS WILL END BEFORE
10PM.
SATURDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GULF SEABREEZE A HEAD START AND PIN
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE EAST OF US-17. INITIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
T'STORMS WILL INCREASE TO WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS WITHIN THE ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL WHERE
HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE ALONG WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE, ALLOWING
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE MID 90S ALONG WEST OF I-95 ACROSS OUR INLAND
ZONES COOLING TO THE LOW 90S WEST OF US-441 OVER SE GA AND ALONG THE
COAST EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MAXING OUT IN THE 102-106
RANGE. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY, AND
INTO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY.
- NUMEROUS T'STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, DECREASING COVERAGE INTO
MIDWEEK
SUNDAY, STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION WHILE SURFACE BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL FL. ALOFT, NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE JUST TO THE
NW OF THE REGION WILL LIMIT T'STORM CHANCES TO WIDELY ISOLATED
PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 WITH WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS OVER
THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. MOSTLY SUNNY, SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS
WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO 104-108 WITH SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS 108-110 VALUES SOUTH OF I-10 AS DAYTIME HUMIDITY
REMAINS WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW 70S.
MONDAY, AN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A STRONG HEAT DOME MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
MID SOUTH AND MID MS VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SURFACE
"BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA, BUT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BEFORE IT ARRIVES PROVIDING PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THE NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INLAND PROGRESSION OF
BOTH SEABREEZES BEFORE MERGING WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS T'STORM COVERAGE. THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS OF 108-110 WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER VALUES
NEAR 112 BEFORE T'STORMS, RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS COOL TEMPERATURES
DOWN.
TUESDAY, STRONG RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NNE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW AND BREEZY WINDS 10-15 MPH, BUT
GUSTING TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PUSH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SW TO THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF T'STORMS WILL BE INLAND SOUTH OF
I-10 INLAND INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS
AWAY FROM THE COAST NORTHWARD AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PRESSES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL COOL TO THE LOW 90S ALONG I-95 AND
THE MID 90S NEAR I-75 WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL PEAK 104-108 INLAND.
WEDNESDAY, THE HEAT DOME RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD TO THE NNW OVER
THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH NE FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL RETREAT TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH ENE WINDS STILL
BREEZY WITH A A LONG FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
UNDERNEATH DRIER AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE RIDGING NORTH OF THE REGION,
LOWERING OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. SCATTERED
INLAND T'STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S INLAND WILL AGAIN LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND COOL MIDWEEK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL
AT THE COAST.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN DIURNAL HEATING, INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS ALOFT AND INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS IN THE 18-24Z TIME FRAME AND WILL CONTINUE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA, MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS AT ALL NE FL
TERMINALS, SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES AT KSSI SO WILL HOLD ONLY A VCTS
THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL CHANCES DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING, LEAVING VFR CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
MARINE
A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LOWER END MODERATE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT AREA BEACHES AS ONSHORE WINDS
BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND TO MAINTAIN A
LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION INLAND FRIDAY
TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS 3-5 MPH WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10
MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST
BY NOON, MOVING ONSHORE PAST I-95 IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
US-17 BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH BEHIND ITS
PASSAGE. WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT, SCATTERED T'STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SHIFTS ONSHORE WITH MORE
NUMEROUS TT'STORMS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING 100-105. MINRH VALUES WILL BE 35-40
PERCENT INLAND.
FRIDAY, MORE MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF THE GULF COAST YIELDING WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T'STORM
COVERAGE WITH ATLANTIC SEABREEZE STRUGGLING TO MOVE AS FAR INLAND
REMAINING EAST OF US-17 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS FRIDAY.
HOT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDEX CLOSING
IN ON HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS 106-110 BY SUNDAY AND WIDELY SCATTERED
T'STORMS. DISPERSIONS WILL BE IN THE GOOD RANGE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM T'STORMS TODAY. SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 301.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER BASIN INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 72 93 74 / 40 50 50 20
SSI 88 77 92 78 / 20 20 40 20
JAX 94 74 96 76 / 50 30 50 20
SGJ 93 75 95 76 / 50 30 50 30
GNV 96 73 95 74 / 50 20 30 10
OCF 95 73 94 75 / 40 20 40 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page