760
FXUS62 KJAX 091718
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
118 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY & FRIDAY. STORM COVERAGE
INCREASES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HEAT ADVISORY NE FL AND SE GA TODAY. PEAK HEAT INDEX: 105-111 MOST
AREAS. MAJOR HEAT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK BEACHES TODAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- HEAT ADVISORY AREA-WIDE TODAY
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINTAINING SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN
STORE WITH PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE AND A PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE
105-110 F RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY, I-10 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA. LINGERING
TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS 2+ IN) OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FL WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE AS IT
SHIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY INCREASES IN COVERAGE AS THE
GULF SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH INLAND SE GA PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE
OCMULGEE/ALTAMAHA RIVER BASINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
CONVECTION WANES BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- LOWER CONVECTIVE CHANCES FRIDAY, BUT INCREASED CHANCE SATURDAY
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OF
INFLUENCE FOR FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY AS WELL BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK DOWN AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MEAN LAYER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED, AS PWATS AVERAGE GENERALLY IN
THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH SOME
POCKETS AS LOW AS AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE AN UPTICK IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST FL AND THEREFORE ALSO EXPECTING AN UPTICK
IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH THE WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALSO MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THIS
SEA BREEZE MAKING AT LEAST SOME PROGRESS INLAND COMBINED WITH THE
PROGRESSING GULF COAST BREEZE WILL BRING THE FOCUS AREA FOR HIGHEST
POPS/STRONGER T'STORM POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY OVER
INTERIOR/CENTRAL AREAS.
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE DANGEROUS HEAT RISK FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
EVEN AT THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS
MAY HIT CENTURY MARK IN SOME SPOTS EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE
"SAVING GRACE" THAT MAY PREVENT ANY HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE EXCELLENT
MIXING OF SOME OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT EACH AFTERNOON, LIMITING DEW
POINTS TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MANY AND THEREFORE AVERAGE HEAT INDICES
AROUND THE 103 TO 108 RANGE. IN ADDITION, MORE HIGHER CLOUDS AND
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD ALSO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL DECISION ON THIS
LATER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR SUNDAY ONWARD
- NOT AS HOT MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS WEAK AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
DIFFUSE OVER/JUST NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND T'STORMS DAILY FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVERALL BENEFICIAL
TO THE LINGERING DROUGHT, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BY SUNDAY, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COVERAGE DROPPING TEMPS EVEN FURTHER TOWARDS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MOVING TOWARDS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AGAIN TODAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST ONLY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT SSE AT SSI
AND SGJ IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO
COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE PLACED
VCTS/PROB30 FOR SGJ BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE NEAR SSI AND CRG, HAVE
LEFT VCSH FOR NOW.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND SURGES FROM THE SOUTH
AND AN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WIND SPEEDS. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WITH ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK DUE TO FAIRLY LOW SURF CONDITIONS AND A MAINLY OFFSHORE
FLOW. ENHANCED POTENTIAL OCCURS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. SURF
REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND TODAY AND FRIDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAILING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSION
INLAND BUT ESPECIALLY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA EACH DAY. DESPITE DRIER
AIR IN PLACE, MINRH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES, IN THE 35 TO
45% RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST:
JULY 9TH:
KJAX: 101/1879
KGNV: 99/1932
KAMG: 100/1986
KCRG: 101/2016
JULY 10TH:
KJAX: 102/1879
KGNV: 99/1914
KAMG: 99/1980
KCRG: 99/2016
JULY 11TH:
KGNV: 100/1900
KAMG: 100/1980
KCRG: 99/1998
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 98 76 97 / 20 10 10 20
SSI 79 97 81 97 / 30 10 10 20
JAX 77 99 78 98 / 10 20 20 50
SGJ 77 96 78 96 / 30 20 10 30
GNV 75 98 75 97 / 0 30 20 60
OCF 75 97 76 96 / 0 20 20 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page