198
FXUS62 KJAX 101225
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
825 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- NEAR RECORD HEAT AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY: 96 - 101. HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FROM 11
AM 7 PM FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL FL &
- COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA, WITH MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK AREA-WIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ON FRIDAY & SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS: 104 - 113
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN
IMPACT AREA: INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS & LIGHTNING
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS SAT - TUES.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- NEAR RECORD HEAT CONTINUES AREA-WIDE.
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GA COUNTIES TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1021
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH THIS
FEATURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWESTERN GA ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WAS SPINNING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS, WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SEASONABLY MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY,
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, WHERE
PWATS WERE GENERALLY AROUND 1.9 INCHES. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) HAS OTHERWISE DROPPED PWATS TO AROUND 1.6
INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. MAINLY MID
AND HIGH ALTITUDE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ORIGINATING FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION WAS DRIFTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA,
WITH FAIR SKIES OTHERWISE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES AT 07Z RANGED FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 80S AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY 70-75.
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FILLS. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PLACE THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH PREVAILING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF THE SAL
INTO SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A POCKET OF DEEPER
MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST AND ALSO OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST WILL ALSO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FL THIS AFTERNOON TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE INLAND MOVING
ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZES, AS WELL AS THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND
LAKE GEORGE BREEZES, WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY DEVELOPING FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PULSE AND BECOME
STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE, WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT, ALONG WITH
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT, WITH A MORE SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS BENEATH THE SAL ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO NEAR DAILY
RECORDS (SEE "CLIMATE" SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS, AS MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR REGION TOP OUT BETWEEN 95-100 DEGREES. THE INCREASINGLY
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO THE UPPER 70S LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND PAST THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WE LEFT THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY UNTOUCHED, WHICH
INCLUDES ALL OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, AS WELL AS CAMDEN
AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. HEAT INDICES WILL SOAR
TO THE 108-112 DEGREE RANGE IN THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA, AND A FEW
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY INLAND LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST FL
COULD BRIEFLY NUDGE ABOVE THE 113 DEGREE THRESHOLD AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO TRY
AND PINPOINT ANY AREAS THAT WILL REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA (113 DEGREES AND ABOVE) AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND. OTHERWISE, DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, EXCEPT
AROUND 80 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
- INCREASED STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WHERE PWATS WILL RISE INTO THE 2-2.5" RANGE. DANGEROUS HEAT
CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NECESSARY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
SUNDAY, DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WILL PROMPT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE EAST COAST WHERE THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZES MEET.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL
NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNDER A 'MARGINAL' RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL, WITH MAX HEAT INDICES STAYING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- UNSETTLED PATTERN EARLY TO MID WEEK
- NOT AS HOT MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
STORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS INTO
GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN REACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND DISSIPATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEVERAL DAYS OF NUMEROUS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, MOST OF
THE AREA IS UNDER A 'MARGINAL' RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY.
THE GENERALLY WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST STORM CHANCES
AND STRONG STORM POTENTIAL CLOSER TO I-95 WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
INTERACT. TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD, SCATTERED STORMS FORECAST AREA-WIDE FOR THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS, WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT
ONSHORE BY 18Z SHIFTING WINDS TO SSE AROUND 10-12 KTS FOR
COASTAL TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF SEA BREEZE AS IT SHIFTS INLAND FOR THE NE FL SITES.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EXCEPT FOR GNV WHICH HAS A PROB30 GROUP
FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES DURING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AFTER 21Z THROUGH AROUND 00Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, HAVE VCSH BETWEEN 20-01Z.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THIS
WEATHER PATTERN MAINTAINING A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS THEN SURGING TO CAUTION LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM AROUND ST. AUGUSTINE
SOUTHWARD. TROUGHING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SINK
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THIS FEATURE
LIKELY STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS BY TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING TOWARDS MIDWEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ON TUESDAY ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH COVERAGE THEN
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY, WITH
SURF INCREASING TO 2-3 FEET TOWARDS SUNSET AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES, WHILE SURF ONLY INCREASES TO 1-2 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES. A LOWER END MODERATE RISK MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES LATE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE WINDS
STRENGTHEN, BUT A LOW RISK APPEARS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES DUE TO LOW SURF HEIGHTS. PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY SHOULD YIELD A LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTH OF I-10
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAILING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, MINRH WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES, IN THE 35 TO 45% RANGE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR DESIGNATED CLIMATE SITES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, JULY 10TH-11TH.
JULY 10TH:
KJAX: 102/1879
KGNV: 99/1914
KAMG: 99/1980
KCRG: 99/2016
JULY 11TH:
KJAX: 104/1879
KGNV: 100/1900
KAMG: 100/1980
KCRG: 99/1998
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 97 76 98 76 / 10 10 20 20
SSI 95 81 98 80 / 20 10 20 20
JAX 98 77 99 77 / 20 10 50 40
SGJ 96 79 96 77 / 10 10 40 30
GNV 97 74 97 75 / 30 20 50 20
OCF 97 74 96 77 / 20 30 40 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ153-154-165-
166.
MARINE...NONE.
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