850
FXUS62 KJAX 102331
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
731 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- NEAR RECORD HEAT AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY: 96 - 100. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES:
105 - 112
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS SAT - TUES.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- NEAR RECORD HEAT CONTINUES AREA-WIDE.
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GA COUNTIES TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
DEVELOPING A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ADVECT IN THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) INTO NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL. PWATS COULD LOWER INTO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE BUT
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING GULF AND
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW BRIEF
STORMS ALONG THE COAST AND SE GA. A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PULSE
AND BECOME STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE. WITH POTENTIAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG, STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT, WITH A MORE SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS BENEATH THE SAL ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO NEAR DAILY
RECORDS (SEE "CLIMATE" SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS), AS MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR REGION TOP OUT BETWEEN 95-100 DEGREES. THE INCREASINGLY
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE MID-UPPER
60S ACROSS MOST OF INLAND SE GA AND ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IN INLAND SE GA TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MOST OF NE FL WHERE T. HE
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL
SOAR TO THE 108-112 DEGREE RANGE, WITH A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY NUDGING TO 113 DEGREE THRESHOLD BEFORE THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
- INCREASED STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WHERE PWATS WILL RISE INTO THE 2-2.5" RANGE. DANGEROUS HEAT
CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NECESSARY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
SUNDAY, DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WILL PROMPT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE EAST COAST WHERE THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZES MEET.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL
NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNDER A 'MARGINAL' RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL, WITH MAX HEAT INDICES STAYING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- UNSETTLED PATTERN EARLY TO MID WEEK
- NOT AS HOT MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
STORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS INTO
GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN REACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND DISSIPATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEVERAL DAYS OF NUMEROUS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, MOST OF
THE AREA IS UNDER A 'MARGINAL' RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY.
THE GENERALLY WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST STORM CHANCES
AND STRONG STORM POTENTIAL CLOSER TO I-95 WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
INTERACT. TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD, SCATTERED STORMS FORECAST AREA-WIDE FOR THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS, WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE REACHING SGJ AND CRG.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN MAINTAINING A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN SURGING TO CAUTION LEVELS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGHING WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SINK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY
STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS BY TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING TOWARDS MIDWEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH COVERAGE
THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY, WITH
SURF INCREASING TO 2-3 FEET TOWARDS SUNSET AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES, WHILE SURF ONLY INCREASES TO 1-2 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES. A LOWER END MODERATE RISK MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES LATE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE WINDS
STRENGTHEN, BUT A LOW RISK APPEARS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES DUE TO LOW SURF HEIGHTS. PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY SHOULD YIELD A LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY NORTH OF I-10
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAILING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, MINRH WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES, IN THE 35 TO 45% RANGE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR DESIGNATED CLIMATE SITES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, JULY 10TH-11TH.
JULY 10TH:
KJAX: 102/1879
KGNV: 99/1914
KAMG: 99/1980
KCRG: 99/2016
JULY 11TH:
KJAX: 104/1879
KGNV: 100/1900
KAMG: 100/1980
KCRG: 99/1998
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 98 77 96 / 10 0 20 40
SSI 80 98 80 97 / 10 20 10 50
JAX 77 100 77 98 / 10 40 20 60
SGJ 78 98 77 97 / 10 30 30 50
GNV 75 98 75 96 / 30 50 30 50
OCF 75 97 76 95 / 50 40 30 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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