531
FXUS62 KJAX 111129
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
729 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH
- CENTRAL FL & PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND : 94- 99. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY: 105- 110
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING & SMALL
HAIL
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SUN TUES.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN FL THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
MAKING IT TO AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE FOR ALL OF NE FL, AND FOR SE GA NEAR
THE GA/FL BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASED STORM CHANCES SUNDAY ONWARD
STEERING FLOW OFF THE GULF COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM
THE NORTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
PROMPTING HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN WE'VE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FAR
INLAND, REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO I-95, LEAVING
HIGHER STRONG STORM POTENTIAL IN THAT REGION AS WELL AS CLOSER TO
THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. STILL GOING TO BE PRETTY HOT ON
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE HOTTEST
APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE EAST COAST, WHERE VALUES WILL
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MONDAY, SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES FURTHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA.
HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT, ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10, AND ALSO ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WHERE THE
SEA BREEZES INTERACT. THE PRIMARY STRONG STORM THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.
AGAIN, CONVECTION MAY LINGER PAST SUNSET ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MAINLY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT IS, OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT SITS NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE BORDER, THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A
'MARGINAL' RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, AFTER SEVERAL DAYS
OF HEAVY RAIN THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT AND OVER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
STORM CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOWER WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND 20-40%. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE AGAIN EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT, WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, AND FRONTAL
ZONE JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE A
LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH SURF
INCREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET TOWARDS SUNSET. LOWER SURF OF ONLY 1-2
FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES SHOULD YIELD A LOW RISK THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS OF LESS THAN 2 FEET AT
THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALSO
YIELD A LOW RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY AND SUNDAY NORTH OF I-10
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON
DISPERSION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE,
MINRH WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES, IN THE 30 TO 40% RANGE
AWAY FROM THE COAST. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WE EXPECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, AND
AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR DESIGNATED CLIMATE SITES FOR
THIS WEEKEND, JULY 11TH-12TH.
JULY 11TH:
KJAX: 104/1879
KGNV: 100/1900
KAMG: 100/1980
KCRG: 99/1998
JULY 12TH:
KJAX: 102/1879
KGNV: 99/1902
KAMG: 102/1966
KCRG: 99/2015
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 97 75 96 74 / 10 10 40 60
SSI 96 79 97 78 / 30 30 40 40
JAX 98 76 97 76 / 50 30 60 40
SGJ 94 77 95 77 / 30 20 60 20
GNV 97 74 95 75 / 50 30 40 10
OCF 97 74 94 76 / 40 40 30 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ152>154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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