325
FXUS62 KJAX 111745
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST &
NORTH CENTRAL FL & PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND : 94- 99. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: 105- 110
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING & SMALL
HAIL
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SUN TUES.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN FL THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
MAKING IT TO AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE FOR ALL OF NE FL, AND FOR SE GA NEAR
THE GA/FL BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASED STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF SE GA/NE FL FOR SUNDAY
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OFF THE GULF COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, PROMPTING HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN WE'VE SEEN THIS
PAST WEEK. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH FAR INLAND, REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO I-95,
LEAVING HIGHER STRONG STORM POTENTIAL IN THAT REGION AS WELL AS
CLOSER TO THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. STILL GOING TO BE
PRETTY HOT ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE
HOTTEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE EAST COAST, WHERE VALUES WILL
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-
95 CORRIDOR OF NE FL/SE GA AND THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF
JAX.
MONDAY, SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES FURTHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA.
HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT, ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10, AND ALSO ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WHERE THE
SEA BREEZES INTERACT. THE PRIMARY STRONG STORM THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.
AGAIN, CONVECTION MAY LINGER PAST SUNSET ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MAINLY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT IS, OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY
- HEAT RE-BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT SITS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA, THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A 'MARGINAL' RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRONT AND OVER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
STORM CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOWER WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR ALOFT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE AROUND 20-40%. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE AGAIN EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH A RISK OF HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR THESE
STORMS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT, WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE EARLIER START SUNDAY, WITH
ACTIVITY REACHING KGNV LATE MORNING.
MARINE
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, AND FRONTAL
ZONE JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE A
LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH SURF
INCREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET TOWARDS SUNSET. LOWER SURF OF ONLY 1-2
FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES SHOULD YIELD A LOW RISK THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS OF LESS THAN 2 FEET AT
THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALSO
YIELD A LOW RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY NORTH OF I-10
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AREAS OF HIGH
AFTERNOON DISPERSION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. DESPITE DRIER AIR IN
PLACE, MINRH WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES, IN THE 30 TO
40% RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE MINRH VALUES OF 40 TO 50% SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, AND
AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR DESIGNATED CLIMATE SITES FOR
THIS WEEKEND, JULY 11TH-12TH.
JULY 11TH:
KJAX: 104/1879
KGNV: 100/1900
KAMG: 100/1980
KCRG: 99/1998
JULY 12TH:
KJAX: 102/1879
KGNV: 99/1902
KAMG: 102/1966
KCRG: 99/2015
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 96 73 92 / 10 30 40 80
SSI 79 94 77 91 / 30 30 20 80
JAX 76 96 75 94 / 40 50 20 80
SGJ 76 94 76 94 / 10 50 20 80
GNV 74 94 74 93 / 20 60 40 70
OCF 75 93 75 94 / 40 60 30 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ024-038-124-
125-132-137-138-225-232-233-237-325-333-425-433-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ152>154-162-
163-165-166-264-350-364.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ153-154-165-
166.
MARINE...NONE.
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