036
FXUS62 KJAX 120002
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
802 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HEAT ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON: PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES SUNDAY: 105- 110
- INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SUN -
TUES. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
UPDATE
ACTIVE EVENING OF CONVECTION IS SLOWLY COMING TO AN END FOR MOST,
THOUGH SOME ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WITH ANY LINGERING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR TODAY, WITH YET ANOTHER ONE ALREADY ISSUED
FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND COAST TOMORROW - DESPITE TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER SUNDAY, HIGHER HUMIDITY AND LESS
DRY AIR MIXING WILL YIELD SIMILAR HEAT INDICES AGAIN TOMORROW.
DEBRIS CLOUDS OTHERWISE SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S MOST COMMON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASED STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF SE GA/NE FL FOR SUNDAY
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OFF THE GULF COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, PROMPTING HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN WE'VE SEEN THIS
PAST WEEK. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH FAR INLAND, REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO I-95,
LEAVING HIGHER STRONG STORM POTENTIAL IN THAT REGION AS WELL AS
CLOSER TO THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. STILL GOING TO BE
PRETTY HOT ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE
HOTTEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE EAST COAST, WHERE VALUES WILL
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-
95 CORRIDOR OF NE FL/SE GA AND THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF
JAX.
MONDAY, SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES FURTHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA.
HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT, ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10, AND ALSO ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WHERE THE
SEA BREEZES INTERACT. THE PRIMARY STRONG STORM THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.
AGAIN, CONVECTION MAY LINGER PAST SUNSET ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MAINLY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT IS, OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY
- HEAT RE-BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT SITS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA, THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A 'MARGINAL' RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRONT AND OVER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
STORM CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOWER WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR ALOFT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE AROUND 20-40%. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE AGAIN EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH A RISK OF HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
TSRA IS SLOWLY COMING TO AN END FOR NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS, WITH
SOME LINGERING VCTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
STORMS DISSIPATE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ENHANCED IMPACTS BESIDES
VCTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE AT SSI, WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY ABOUT 02-03Z WITH NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY, WITH PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED AGAIN AS A SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
MARINE
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, AND
FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS, AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS MAY
AFFECT AREA WATERS AT TIMES.
RIP CURRENTS:
SURF HEIGHTS OF LESS THAN 2 FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALSO YIELD A LOW RISK, WITH A
SIMILAR LOW RISK LIKELY AT SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY NORTH OF I-10
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AREAS OF HIGH
AFTERNOON DISPERSION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. DESPITE DRIER AIR IN
PLACE, MINRH WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES, IN THE 30 TO
40% RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE MINRH VALUES OF 40 TO 50% SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, AND
AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR DESIGNATED CLIMATE SITES FOR
SUNDAY, JULY 12TH:
JULY 12TH:
KJAX: 102/1879
KGNV: 99/1902
KAMG: 102/1966
KCRG: 99/2015
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 96 73 92 / 10 30 40 80
SSI 78 96 76 93 / 30 30 20 80
JAX 76 96 75 94 / 40 50 20 80
SGJ 76 94 76 94 / 10 50 20 80
GNV 74 94 74 93 / 20 60 40 70
OCF 75 93 75 94 / 40 60 30 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ024-038-124-
125-132-137-138-225-232-233-237-325-333-425-433-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ153-154-165-
166.
MARINE...NONE.
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