029
FXUS62 KJAX 121110
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
710 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY. HEAT ADVISORY ALONG THE I-95 &
U.S.-301 CORRIDORS IN NORTHEAST FL & SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH TEMPERATURES:
93- 99 AND PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES: 103- 110
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING &
HEAVY DOWNPOURS
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY & TUESDAY.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS & LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
- HEAT & HUMIDITY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY, WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE I-95 AND MOST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND HEAVIER DOWNPOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1021
MILLIBARS) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA, WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF. MEANWHILE, A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA'S OUTER BANKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE OZARKS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER (1021 MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH THIS FEATURE SHIFTING
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
OTHERWISE, "HEAT WAVE" RIDGING WAS EXPANDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THE PLAINS STATES. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 - 1.9 INCHES. MID
AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS WAS PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH FAIR SKIES OTHERWISE IN PLACE.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL NATURE COAST
NEAR CEDAR KEY AND CRYSTAL RIVER IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z WERE IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE.
TROUGHING DIGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND INTO NORTHERN GA TOWARDS SUNRISE ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA, ADVECTING A PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN PWATS RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES
LATER TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE THEN OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST GA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE DEPARTING OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, INTENSE
HEATING THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL LIKELY KEEP RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, DRIVING DANGEROUS HEAT TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN SOAR TO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THEN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS EVENING, TRIGGERING
SCATTERED CONVECTION. A HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE
FOR THE I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDORS WAS EXPANDED INLAND TO
INCLUDE THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PEAK HEAT INDICES
AROUND 110 DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND, RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ELSEWHERE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
100-107 DEGREE RANGE AS INTENSE HEATING ALLOWS DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN
TO AROUND 70 BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL NATURE COAST DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS COULD SEND A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MARION COUNTY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, CONVECTION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS, WITH ACTIVITY
THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH A MUCH SLOWER MOVING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL AGAIN DRIVE STORM INTENSITY, WITH
"PULSING" STORMS POTENTIALLY CREATING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-60 MPH,
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST GA TOWARDS SUNSET, WHERE
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHILE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ACTIVITY COULD LINGER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER APALACHEE
BAY AND THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
ON MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POTENTIALLY PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL FL TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASED STORM CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS NORTH OF I-10
MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING IN OVER
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
INTERACT TO CREATE A SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
UPWARDS OF ABOVE 100, BUT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- REDUCED CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING MIDWEEK
- HEAT RE-BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD BY MIDWEEK AS THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING IN FROM OUT OF THE EAST
CROSSES FURTHER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE WEST, RESULTING IN RELATIVELY MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. STORM DEVELOPMENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF AND FLOW
SHIFTS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POTENTIALLY DIPPING IN OVER THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, WITH MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 90S, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY
RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOWARDS 19Z, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS BEGINNING AT
GNV BEFORE 20Z, FOLLOWED BY ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AND SSI, WHERE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 01Z MONDAY. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR US TO MAINTAIN PROB30
GROUPS AT EACH TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3,000 FEET. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE AT THE
SGJ AND SSI COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 03Z, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AFTER 01Z MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH SPEEDS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER
14Z, WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INLAND, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS AT SGJ TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARDS 19Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS.
SURFACE WINDS AT SSI WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY 20Z, WHERE SPEEDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
THEN REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS ONCE
CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AFTER 02Z MONDAY.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SURGING TO CAUTION LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND. A FEW
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EASTWARD MAY IMPACT OUR
LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY
CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GEORGIA
WATERS ON MONDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE STALLING OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLIER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS A
PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN
CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH
SURF INCREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET TOWARDS SUNSET. LOWER SURF OF ONLY
1-2 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES SHOULD YIELD A LOW RISK
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS OF LESS THAN 2 FEET AT
THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES SHOULD ALSO YIELD A LOW RISK DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-10
HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND MONDAY AS INSTABILITY
SITUATED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS
CONSISTENTLY BUILDING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, AND
AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 98 73 90 72 / 40 40 60 50
SSI 95 76 93 76 / 30 20 70 60
JAX 97 75 94 74 / 70 30 70 40
SGJ 94 76 94 76 / 60 30 60 10
GNV 94 74 93 74 / 70 30 50 20
OCF 93 74 93 76 / 70 10 40 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ023-024-030-031-038-124-125-132-137-138-225-232-
233-237-325-333-425-433-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ136-151>154-165-166-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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