797
FXUS62 KJAX 121610
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1210 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY. HEAT ADVISORY ALONG THE I-95 &
U.S.-301 CORRIDORS IN NORTHEAST FL & SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH TEMPERATURES:
93- 99 AND PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES: 103- 110
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING &
HEAVY DOWNPOURS
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY & TUESDAY.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS & LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
- HEAT & HUMIDITY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW, WITH MAINLY LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR REACHING INTO THE 105-110F RANGE FOR HEAT
INDICES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S. EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F. LOW TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS TONIGHT WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 70S INLAND, UPPER 70S ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST/I-95 CORRIDOR.
OTHER THAN THE HEAT, THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL
AND SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS DRIER AIR ALOFT
AND DCAPE VALUES NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. SO WHILE EXPECTED
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP, THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AROUND 60 MPH NOT AS GREAT AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL BE MOST
LIKELY NEAR THE GULF/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGERS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG OUTFLOW MERGERS ACROSS SE GA. WITH A
LATER START TO CONVECTION ACROSS SE GA, EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
THREAT THERE TO LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT,
WHILE THE CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL SHOULD FADE BY THE SUNSET TIME
FRAME. INCREASING SW STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT
ACROSS THE SE US STATES WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING INTO INLAND NE FL TOWARDS MORNING, MAINLY
TO THE WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, IMPACTING MARION, ALACHUA AND
GILCHRIST COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
-INCREASED STORM POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD, WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I10
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH THIS PERIOD.
THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL LARGELY KEEP THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM MOVING INLAND. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GREATER THAN
AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD, BUT AS HIGH AS
RECENT DAYS, DUE TO FORECAST CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- REDUCED CHANCES FOR STORMS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN FL THIS PERIOD, WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
WESTERLY FLOW GOING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. DAILY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE WEAKENING, CHANCES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THIS
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMMON.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
STORM CHANCES HIGHER TODAY AND WILL UPGRADE ALL OF THE NE FL
TERMINALS FROM PROB30 TO TEMPO GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE
18-23Z TIME FRAME, FOR GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS, MVFR CIGS AND
POTENTIAL IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM ARRIVAL WILL BE DELAYED
AT SSI ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES AND WILL KEEP
PROB30 THERE FROM 21-01Z TIME FRAME. VFR CONDS RETURN TO TERMINALS
AFTER SUNSET ACROSS NE FL AND BY 03-04Z AT SSI, WITH JUST LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FOG CHANCES LIKELY TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT WILL MONITOR IF ANY
TERMINALS RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY THAT WOULD HELP TO PRODUCE
FOG FORMATION. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT GNV IN THE 13-15Z TIME FRAME ONWARD AND WILL NEED TO ADD
AT LEAST VCSH AND POSSIBLE VCTS TOWARDS 18Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GEORGIA WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE STALLING OVER THE GEORGIA
WATERS ON TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLIER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS A
PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES SE/ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH SURF GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
- NORTH OF I10
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH THIS WEEK. WHILE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST, ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
A TREND UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 89 72 88 / 40 70 50 70
SSI 77 92 75 91 / 50 80 50 70
JAX 75 93 73 92 / 40 80 40 70
SGJ 75 93 75 93 / 40 80 20 60
GNV 74 91 72 91 / 30 60 50 50
OCF 74 91 74 92 / 40 80 40 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ023-024-030-
031-038-124-125-132-137-138-225-232-233-237-325-333-425-
433-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ136-151>154-
165-166-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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