040
FXUS62 KJAX 130016
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS SE GA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HEAT & HUMIDITY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND
UPDATE...THROUGH TONIGHT
RESIDUAL STRATIFORM TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH AROUND 10 PM. THERE WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A FEW AREAS IN COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND
ACROSS MARION COUNTY THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY COULD STILL
SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD THROUGH THE TWILIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 70S NEAR BEACHES DUE TO THE WARM COASTAL WATER INFLUENCE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
-INCREASED STORM POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD, WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I10
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH THIS PERIOD.
THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL LARGELY KEEP THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM MOVING INLAND. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GREATER THAN
AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD, BUT AS HIGH AS
RECENT DAYS, DUE TO FORECAST CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- REDUCED CHANCES FOR STORMS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN FL THIS PERIOD, WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
WESTERLY FLOW GOING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. DAILY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE WEAKENING, CHANCES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THIS
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMMON.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RESIDUAL
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN TRAILING TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES
THROUGH AROUND 02Z BEFORE FADING. VFR CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD LOCALIZE
GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AT AIRFIELDS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN
ACCUMULATED THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS TREND CALM DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BEGINNING A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN TODAY.
SHOWERS AT KGNV MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 13Z AND THEN SHIFT TOWARD
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 15Z. TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE WARRANTED BUT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF TSRA MONDAY, WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE
ON THE EARLY SIDE, ELECTED TO INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS FOR
CONVECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-23Z.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GEORGIA WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE STALLING OVER THE GEORGIA
WATERS ON TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLIER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS A
PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES SE/ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH SURF GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH THIS WEEK. WHILE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST, ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
A TREND UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 89 72 88 / 40 70 50 70
SSI 77 92 75 91 / 50 80 50 70
JAX 75 93 73 92 / 40 80 40 70
SGJ 75 93 75 93 / 40 80 20 60
GNV 74 91 72 91 / 30 60 50 50
OCF 74 91 74 92 / 40 80 40 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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