485
FXUS62 KJAX 131126
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
726 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST GA.
HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING & HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT EXTENDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG TSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS & FREQUENT
LIGHTNING FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS & TSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS WED - SUN.
SUMMERTIME HEAT & HUMIDITY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK & INTO UPCOMING
WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SE GA
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE TO THE
NORTH, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THIS PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE, AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE
WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE OVER SE GA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
-INCREASED STORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I10
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFTING TO
BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVES EASTWARD AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE GULF. PATTERN OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY
WITH MORE DENSE DEVELOPMENTS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, NEARER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE UPWARDS OF ABOVE 100, BUT IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- REDUCED CHANCES FOR STORMS
EASTERLY PREVAILING FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO EXTEND TO TO THE WEST
AND NORTH WITH FLOW BECOMING LESS UNIFORM BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WATERS TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. DAILY
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN EARLIER IN THE
WEAK AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH BECOME LESS DEFINED. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, WITH MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 90S, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES POTENTIALLY RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND THIS
MORNING, THEN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL APPROACH THE GEORGIA WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING, WITH THIS
FEATURE THEN STALLING OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR
LOCAL WATERS EARLIER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS CONTAINING BRIEFLY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DECREASE BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS A PREVAILING WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL KEEP THE RIP
CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH THIS WEEK. WHILE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST, ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
A TREND UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 73 88 72 / 80 60 70 40
SSI 90 76 90 76 / 70 50 80 50
JAX 90 74 91 73 / 70 30 70 40
SGJ 91 75 92 75 / 70 20 70 30
GNV 88 73 91 73 / 70 30 60 10
OCF 89 74 92 75 / 60 20 40 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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