929
FXUS62 KJAX 132216
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
616 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH, LIGHTNING & HEAVY
DOWNPOURS
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS WED -
SUN. SUMMERTIME HEAT & HUMIDITY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK & INTO
UPCOMING WEEKEND
UPDATE...THROUGH TONIGHT
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SQUALL HAS NOW VACATED THE
REGION, LEAVING RESIDUAL TRAILING STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO FADE INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH AT THIS HOUR, THE
ANVIL- RELATIVE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LIGHT "BLOW- OFF" STRATIFORM
RAIN FROM PUSHING BACK INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING - DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
DUE TO THE EARLY TIMED CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE FL WERE
COOLED TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY A WARM A FEW
DEGREES POSSIBLY BACK TOWARDS THE LOW 80S IF CLOUDS CLEAR BUT
GENERALLY A MILD EVENING IS EXPECTED. WARMER CONDITIONS PERSIST WHERE
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST GA.
THERE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WILL COOL TO THE LOW/MID
70S OVERNIGHT.
GIVE THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK PATTERN TAKING PLACE ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA, THE LOCAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN A PREVAILING
WESTERLY WHICH WILL SEND SHEARED VORTICITY LOBES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE COMPACT UPPER WAVE TO THE
NORTHWEST RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST. THE FIRST OF THE VORTICITY
RIPPLES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW, GENERATING A FIELD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NOT
AN EXACT CARBON COPY OF TODAY, BUT IT WILL BE SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE TIMING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
-INCREASED STORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I10
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHIFTS EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY EXPANDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DAILY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE
POPS RANGE FROM 70 TO 85 PERCENT. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST, RESULTING IN A MODEST DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (POPS 50-60%) REMAINING LIKELY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF SE GA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ROUTINELY CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 106
DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- REDUCED CHANCES FOR STORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING TO
THE NORTH WASHES OUT, RESULTING IN LESS SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND A
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. WHILE DAILY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITH UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION, NWLY FLOW ALOFT, AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER PWATS. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SAHARAN DUST TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE WEEK,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ITS OVERALL IMPACT REMAINS MODEST.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 20-35 PERCENT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WITH LESSER CHANCES EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 40-50
PERCENT RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER
THE REGION AND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE COAST AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN. AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY. RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL KEEP THE RIP
CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH THIS WEEK. WHILE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST, ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
A TREND UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 87 71 89 / 20 70 40 50
SSI 76 90 75 92 / 10 70 30 50
JAX 73 90 73 93 / 10 70 30 50
SGJ 74 91 75 93 / 10 70 20 50
GNV 73 90 72 93 / 30 70 20 40
OCF 75 91 74 93 / 20 60 20 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page