594
FXUS62 KJAX 132340
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
740 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON.
HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH, LIGHTNING & HEAVY DOWNPOURS
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS WED - SUN.
SUMMERTIME HEAT & HUMIDITY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK & INTO UPCOMING
WEEKEND
UPDATE...THROUGH TONIGHT
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MODERATELY STRONG SQUALL HAS
VACATED THE REGION, LEAVING RESIDUAL TRAILING STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF NE FL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO FADE INTO THE EVENING.
DESPITE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH AT THIS
HOUR, THE ANVIL-RELATIVE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LIGHT "BLOW-OFF"
STRATIFORM RAIN FROM PUSHING BACK INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING - DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
DUE TO THE EARLY TIMED CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE FL WERE
COOLED TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY A WARM A FEW
DEGREES POSSIBLY BACK TOWARDS THE LOW 80S IF CLOUDS CLEAR BUT
GENERALLY A MILD EVENING IS EXPECTED. WARMER CONDITIONS PERSIST WHERE
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST GA.
THERE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WILL COOL TO THE LOW/MID
70S OVERNIGHT.
GIVE THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK PATTERN TAKING PLACE ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA, THE LOCAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN A PREVAILING
WESTERLY WHICH WILL SEND SHEARED VORTICITY LOBES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE COMPACT UPPER WAVE TO THE
NORTHWEST RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST. THE FIRST OF THE VORTICITY
RIPPLES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW, GENERATING A FIELD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NOT
AN EXACT CARBON COPY OF TODAY, BUT IT WILL BE SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE TIMING.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TREND AT OR BELOW 5
KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG BUT THIS WILL
BE LOCALIZED, NOT WIDESPREAD. TUESDAY WILL BE INITIALLY VFR BUT
SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO KGNV AROUND 12Z AND THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD,
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS 15Z. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY
KEEP THE REGION FROM SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZING. HOWEVER, IF
ADEQUATE HEATING OCCURS OR SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT AREA TERMINALS DURING THE 16Z-
21Z WINDOW.
MARINE
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL KEEP THE RIP
CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH THIS WEEK. WHILE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST, ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
A TREND UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 87 71 89 / 20 70 40 50
SSI 76 90 75 92 / 10 70 30 50
JAX 73 90 73 93 / 10 70 30 50
SGJ 74 91 75 93 / 10 70 20 50
GNV 73 90 72 93 / 30 70 20 40
OCF 75 91 74 93 / 20 60 20 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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