386
FXUS62 KJAX 140803
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
403 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WAVES OF DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
- A FEW STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AT URBAN LOCATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- WAVES OF DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
- A FEW STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AT URBAN LOCATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHERN TEXAS. MEANWHILE, ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUES TO EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE (1024
MILLIBARS) STRETCHES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS OUR
REGION. ALOFT...CUTOFF TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF AN EXPANSIVE "HEAT WAVE"
RIDGE THAT WAS BLANKETING THE UPPER MIDWEST, THE GREAT LAKES,
AND THE PLAINS STATES. DEEP-LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WITH FAST LOW TO MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE CUTOFF TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS FAST FLOW AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS TOUCHED OFF A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT WAS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL BIG
BEND REGION, WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MIGRATING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR AREA. MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S REGION-WIDE AT 08Z.
CUTOFF TROUGHING CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER ALABAMA WILL BECOME
CAPTURED BY THE DEEP-LAYERED "HEAT WAVE" RIDGE TO ITS NORTH,
RESULTING IN THIS FEATURE RETROGRADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING THE OZARKS TOWARDS
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS CUTOFF TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROPEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO OUR AREA DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MCS FEATURE CURRENTLY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY MAY WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE SUWANNEE VALLEY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, WE
EXPECT WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PROGRESS ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-35 KNOTS AT 850
MILLIBARS (AROUND 5,000 FEET) COULD CAUSE CONVECTIVE CELLS TO
PULSE AND BECOME STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 35-45
MPH, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS TROUGHING MOVES FURTHER AWAY
FROM OUR REGION, WITH RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH BUILDING INTO OUR
AREA AND RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE SAVANNAH
RIVER ENTRANCE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
LATER TODAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE STALLS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WE EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, HOPEFULLY PROVIDING SOME
BENEFICIAL DOWNPOURS TO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA, WHICH HAS MOSTLY
BEEN DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THUS FAR THIS MONTH. FASTER
LOW LEVEL FLOW POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL
SHOULD RESULT IN WAVES OF FASTER MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF HEAVIER CELLS TRAIN OVER URBAN
OR NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT.
BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD BOOST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 70S
AREA- WIDE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- REDUCED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DRIFTS FURTHER WEST TOWARDS LOUISIANA. CHANCES
FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHED ON THURSDAY AS DRIER
AIR AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS MOVE ACROSS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH TEMPS
RISING SLIGHTLY INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE UPWARDS OF ABOVE 100, BUT IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
TYPICAL SEASONAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND HOT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 90S,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 14Z. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AT THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS, WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 1,500 FEET AFTER 14Z AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH THE GNV TERMINAL FROM THE WEST. TEMPO GROUPS WERE
INCLUDED AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS FROM 14Z- 20Z AS
CONVECTION PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD, WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS AND IFR VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
INCLUDED. CONVECTION SHOULD APPROACH SSI AFTER 19Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME, AS
WE OPTED FOR A PROB30 GROUP THROUGH AROUND 01Z WEDNESDAY FOR
BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND IFR VISIBILITIES DURING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD THEN
IMPACT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SGJ AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY,
AND WE HAVE INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE PREVAILING VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY EVENING AT
THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY TOWARDS 14Z, WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF APPROACHING CONVECTION.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION AFTER 16Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
THEN SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS 00Z, WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS BY 02Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN
WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT ALL OF OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS CONTAINING BRIEFLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY AS PREVAILING WINDS BRIEFING SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
DECREASE BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES, WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. SURFACE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR LOCAL WATERS AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL KEEP THE RIP
CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH THIS WEEK. WHILE
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST, ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH A TREND UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS
NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 72 90 73 / 70 40 30 10
SSI 91 74 92 77 / 70 60 40 20
JAX 91 73 93 74 / 60 40 40 10
SGJ 92 75 93 76 / 60 20 50 10
GNV 91 73 93 74 / 40 20 40 10
OCF 91 73 93 75 / 40 10 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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