803
FXUS62 KJAX 141216
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
816 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING & HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE,
MAINLY AT URBAN & LOW-LYING AREAS
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS WED - MON
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
UPDATE
PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF COAST REGION CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING ARES OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THOUGH THIS
ACTIVITY AND HIGHER CLOUDS MAY PUSH BACK THE START OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T'STORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AREAS LIKELY TO BE TOWARDS
THE COAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA CLOSER
TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGING SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA WIDE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
-REDUCED CHANCES FOR STORMS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DRIFTS FURTHER WEST TOWARDS LOUISIANA. CHANCES FOR
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHED ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS MOVE ACROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH TEMPS RISING SLIGHTLY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE UPWARDS OF
ABOVE 100, BUT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
TYPICAL SEASONAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND HOT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 90S, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK LIGHT RAIN/SHRA CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND HIGHER CLOUDS MAY
PUSH BACK THE START OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT, HAVE PUSHED BACK TEMPO GROUPS SLIGHTLY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ONE OF THESE GROUPS AT EACH TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO SOUTHEAST GA THIS EVENING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY, AND CONVECTION MAY LINGER GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-10 AFTER SUNSET. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT PROB30S FOR ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT GNV AND SGJ LATER THIS EVENING, THOUGH WILL UPDATE DETAILS AS
CONFIDENCE GROWS WITH FUTURE UPDATES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN
WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT ALL OF OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS CONTAINING BRIEFLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY AS PREVAILING WINDS BRIEFING SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
DECREASE BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES, WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. SURFACE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR LOCAL WATERS AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL KEEP THE RIP
CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH THIS WEEK. WHILE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST, ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH A
TREND UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 72 90 73 / 70 40 30 10
SSI 91 74 92 77 / 70 60 40 20
JAX 91 73 93 74 / 60 40 40 10
SGJ 92 75 93 76 / 60 20 50 10
GNV 91 73 93 74 / 40 20 40 10
OCF 91 73 93 75 / 40 10 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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