033
FXUS62 KJAX 141741
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING & HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE,
MAINLY AT URBAN & LOW-LYING AREAS
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS WED - MON
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- WAVES OF DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
- A FEW STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AT URBAN LOCATIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER BY THIS EVENING. THE
PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP DIURNALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS INTERIOR GA. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL
WITH PWATS IN THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE, BUT WITH DRIER/COOLER AIR LESS
ABUNDANT ALOFT, EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING TO BE THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL HAZARD WITH CONVECTION TODAY,
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING SECONDARY AND MORE ISOLATED AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW OF HIGHER DCAPE AND STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS OBSERVED.
HIGHER CHANCES FOR GUSTY DOWNBURSTS WILL BE GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST FL, AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NEARLY PINNED EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE. HI
RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND T'STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE 04 TO 06Z RANGE FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE BOUNDARY.
DESPITE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST GA, HIGHS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOW AND
MID 70S AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
-REDUCED CHANCES FOR STORMS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OVER
NORTH GA BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE, ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
WEDNESDAY FEATURING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE. BY THURSDAY, DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FURTHER SUPPRESS CONVECTION, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED (POPS AROUND
15 TO 25 PERCENT).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES,
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY UNDER GREATER SUNSHINE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
GENERALLY PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES, REMAINING BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINTAINING PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE, WHILE WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND PASSING PERTURBATIONS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. SLIGHTLY LOWER PWAT VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SAHARAN DUST INTRUSION, PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE WEEK, MAY
FURTHER SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE,
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
BEFORE INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
ROUTINELY PUSH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE, WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA POTENTIALLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS, ALREADY HAVE AFFECTED GNV AS OF 1730Z. PUSHED BACK TEMPO
GROUPS A BIT FURTHER WITH THE LATEST UPDATE AND CONTINUED TO INCLUDE
ALL TERMINALS, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL "ROUNDS" OF
SHOWERS AND T'STORMS CONTINUING THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD LAST INTO
THE START OF TONIGHT AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY WITH RESPECT TO
COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY WITH TS COVERAGE, AND THEREFORE MAINTAINED
PROB30 GROUPS NORTH OF GNV AND SGJ. GENERALLY I-10 AND NORTHWARD
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LASTING THROUGH ABOUT THE
04 TO 06Z TIME FRAME CLOSER TO A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT NUDGING SOUTHWARD,
WHICH WILL ALSO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY,
ENOUGH TO ONLY INCLUDE VCSH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN
WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL OF OUR LOCAL WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
A FEW STRONG STORMS CONTAINING BRIEFLY GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DECREASE BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS AS
OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
AND A GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEK. DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEFORE BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 72 90 73 / 70 40 30 10
SSI 91 74 92 77 / 70 60 40 20
JAX 91 73 93 74 / 60 40 40 10
SGJ 92 75 93 76 / 60 20 50 10
GNV 91 73 93 74 / 40 20 40 10
OCF 91 73 93 75 / 40 10 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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