906
FXUS62 KJAX 142225
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
625 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS WED - MON
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
UPDATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD, MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-10, CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT. FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING, EXPECT A SIMILAR SET UP, WITH CONVECTIVE MODELS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR INCREASED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. WHETHER OR
NOT WE GET ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND ANY LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FROM TODAY. STORMS WILL HAVE THAT
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-40MPH AS THAT FAST FORWARD MOTION
CONTINUES.
WEDNESDAY, WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
-REDUCED CHANCES FOR STORMS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OVER
NORTH GA BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE, ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
WEDNESDAY FEATURING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE. BY THURSDAY, DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FURTHER SUPPRESS CONVECTION, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED (POPS AROUND
15 TO 25 PERCENT).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES,
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY UNDER GREATER SUNSHINE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
GENERALLY PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES, REMAINING BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINTAINING PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE, WHILE WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND PASSING PERTURBATIONS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. SLIGHTLY LOWER PWAT VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SAHARAN DUST INTRUSION, PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE WEEK, MAY
FURTHER SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE,
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
BEFORE INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
ROUTINELY PUSH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE, WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA POTENTIALLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
GENERALLY I-10 AND NORTHWARD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION LASTING THROUGH ABOUT THE 04 TO 06Z TIME FRAME CLOSER TO
A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT NUDGING SOUTHWARD, WHICH WILL ALSO REDUCE THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY, ENOUGH TO ONLY INCLUDE VCSH
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN
WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL OF OUR LOCAL WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
A FEW STRONG STORMS CONTAINING BRIEFLY GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DECREASE BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS AS
OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
AND A GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEK. DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEFORE BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION.
HYDROLOGY
WATER LEVELS ON THE SATILLA RIVER AT ATKINSON CONTINUES TO
LOWER AND IS NOW FORECAST TO DROP TO THE ACTION STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 90 73 92 / 40 30 10 10
SSI 76 92 77 94 / 70 30 20 30
JAX 73 93 74 94 / 50 30 10 30
SGJ 74 93 76 94 / 50 30 20 30
GNV 72 93 73 93 / 20 30 20 10
OCF 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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