197
FXUS62 KJAX 150806
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
406 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS TODAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA EACH DAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA,
WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS (BOTH 1021 MILLIBARS) WERE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST FL AND ALSO OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALOFT...PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT AS IT
RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, "HEAT WAVE" RIDGING WAS EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA REGION AND THE CAROLINAS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE LOCALLY, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM AROUND 1.8
INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL TO AROUND 2.2 INCHES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST GA.
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WERE FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL, WITH MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO THIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70-75
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS OUR AREA.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN TODAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW EXITS OUR AREA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS STALLED NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WEAKENS, LEAVING OUR AREA IN
A TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST FL WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
CREATING LOW AND MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINNING
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
HIGHS TO NEAR MID-JULY CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS OUR AREA, AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY, WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PUSHING THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY EASTWARD, WHILE THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES MORE SLOWLY INLAND. CONVECTION MAY PULSE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE, BUT ONLY ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS FORCING SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY
FROM OUR AREA. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY, RATHER THAN STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH A FEW
PULSING CONVECTIVE CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS NEAR A ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR THE
U.S. HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH
THINNING DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW YIELDING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
-DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING EXTENDS IN FROM OUT OF THE EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
SHIFTS NORTHWARD, TOWARDS LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE, PATTERN FOR
SEASONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH BOUTS OF DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF COLLISION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
UPWARDS OF ABOVE 100 WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
TYPICAL SEASONAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WESTERLY FLOW,
DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND HOT WEATHER. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 90S,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL A THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOWARDS 17Z,
WITH INITIAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT GNV, FOLLOWED BY ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, SSI, AND SGJ AFTER
18Z. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INDICATE PREVAILING VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WE
HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS AT EACH TERMINAL FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS, ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE BY
03Z THURSDAY. LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 13Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BEFORE 16Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP TOWARDS 21Z, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SGJ AND SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SSI.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
00Z, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 03Z
THURSDAY
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
IT WEAKENS. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
FRIDAY, CREATING A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS, WITH A LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING TODAY
AND THEN EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY THAT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO ONSHORE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS, FOLLOWED
BY COVERAGE DECREASING TO ISOLATED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING WIDELY SCATTERED, MAINLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR LOCAL
WATERS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND A GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH.
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEFORE BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 72 91 75 / 50 40 30 10
SSI 90 76 94 79 / 40 30 30 10
JAX 92 73 94 75 / 60 40 40 20
SGJ 91 75 93 77 / 30 30 40 10
GNV 92 73 93 74 / 40 30 40 10
OCF 93 73 93 76 / 40 10 30 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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