163
FXUS62 KJAX 151201
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
801 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING &
HEAVY DOWNPOURS
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS TODAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA, WITH THIS
FEATURE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHERN
TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS (BOTH 1021 MILLIBARS) WERE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST FL AND ALSO OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT AS IT RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE, "HEAT WAVE" RIDGING WAS EXPANDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION AND THE CAROLINAS. LATEST GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE LOCALLY, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM AROUND
1.8 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL TO AROUND 2.2 INCHES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST GA.
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WERE FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER COASTAL NORTHEAST FL,
WITH MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO THIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS OUR AREA.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN TODAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW EXITS OUR AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS STALLED NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WEAKENS, LEAVING OUR AREA IN A
TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST FL WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, CREATING LOW AND MID
LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINNING HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER
WILL ALLOW ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR MID-JULY
CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS OUR AREA, AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
PUSHING THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY EASTWARD,
WHILE THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES MORE SLOWLY INLAND.
CONVECTION MAY PULSE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE, BUT ONLY
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS FORCING SHIFTS FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY, RATHER THAN STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH A FEW PULSING
CONVECTIVE CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR A
ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 17
CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH THINNING DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW YIELDING LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
-DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EXTENDS IN FROM OUT OF THE EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SHIFTS NORTHWARD,
TOWARDS LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE, PATTERN FOR SEASONAL WESTERLY FLOW
WITH BOUTS OF DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF
COLLISION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE UPWARDS OF ABOVE 100 WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
TYPICAL SEASONAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WESTERLY FLOW, DAILY BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND HOT WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
WITH MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 90S, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY RISING
TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL A THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
TOWARDS 17Z, WITH INITIAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT GNV, FOLLOWED BY
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, SSI, AND SGJ
AFTER 18Z. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS,
ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE BY 03Z THURSDAY. LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BEFORE 16Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS 21Z, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS AT SGJ AND SSI.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS.
MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY, CREATING A
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING TODAY AND THEN EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY THAT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO ONSHORE OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS, FOLLOWED BY COVERAGE DECREASING TO ISOLATED
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING
WIDELY SCATTERED, MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO OUR LOCAL WATERS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
AND A GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEK. DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEFORE BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION.
HYDROLOGY
WATER LEVELS ON THE SATILLA RIVER AT ATKINSON CONTINUES TO
LOWER AND IS NOW FORECAST TO DROP TO THE ACTION STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 72 91 75 / 30 20 30 10
SSI 90 76 94 79 / 40 20 30 10
JAX 92 73 94 75 / 60 40 40 20
SGJ 91 75 93 77 / 50 40 40 10
GNV 92 73 93 74 / 30 20 40 10
OCF 93 73 93 76 / 40 10 30 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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