642
FXUS62 KJAX 151626
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1226 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS NEAR 40
MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING & HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS TODAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF HELPS MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL TO AROUND 2.2 INCHES IN SE GA. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW PUSHING THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY EASTWARD,
WHILE THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE REMAINS PINNED THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTION MAY PULSE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH. STRONG WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION
LINGERS NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY WANES WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST YOU GO WITH THE CONTINENTAL INFLUENCE. THAT SAID, THERE IS
STILL MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS PWATS
WILL HOVER AROUND THE 1.9 TO 2 INCH RANGE, AND THEREFORE EXPECTING
MORE OF A TYPICAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM. ONE MAIN FACTOR THAT SUSPECT IS CAUSING MORE
DISCREPANCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE FORMING OF A BROAD UPPER
LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND/OR EASTERN GULF ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, IN WHICH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS WELL AS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE LONG TERM
(MORE ON THAT BELOW). ALL IN ALL, EXPECTING HIGHEST TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO RESULT IN HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST FL,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NEARLY PINNED ATLANTIC BREEZE ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL OVERALL TREND CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
THE SHORT TERM, IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS BOTH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGHINESS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS PLACED THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A 20% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE
LIFTING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING
DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. REGARDLESS, THE MAIN TAKE HOME
POINTS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ENHANCED SHOWER/T'STORM
ACTIVITY AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, AND SECONDLY
AS A SEASONAL REMINDER TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL READINESS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL A THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
TOWARDS 17Z, WITH INITIAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT GNV, FOLLOWED BY
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, SSI, AND SGJ
AFTER 18Z. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS,
ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE BY 03Z THURSDAY. LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BEFORE 16Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS 21Z, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS AT SGJ AND SSI.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS.
MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY, CREATING A
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING TODAY AND THEN EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY THAT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO ONSHORE OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS, FOLLOWED BY COVERAGE DECREASING TO ISOLATED ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NHC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A LOW CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD BRING WIDELY SCATTERED, MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR LOCAL WATERS AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL TODAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DROP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND T'STORMS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST YOU GO AWAY FROM SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. THE FLOW WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS LIKE THE OCALA NATIONAL
FOREST. THESE DISPERSIONS WILL DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA. SHOWER AND T'STORM CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EMERGING. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING, IN WHICH MORE DETAILS WILL BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NO CONCERNS WITH MINRH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 74 91 74 / 50 20 30 10
SSI 91 76 93 77 / 50 20 30 10
JAX 91 75 93 75 / 50 40 40 20
SGJ 92 75 92 76 / 50 40 40 10
GNV 92 74 92 73 / 30 10 50 20
OCF 92 74 92 75 / 30 10 50 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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