029
FXUS62 KJAX 160011
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
811 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
STRONG STORM HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING &
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPDATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, FADING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEN, MAINLY DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S. MAIN UPDATES WERE TO REFINE
THE RAIN/POP FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. ALSO, MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY, WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
RAIN CHANCES THAN WHAT WE HAD TODAY. BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN I-75 AND I-95 OVER
NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
-DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST YOU GO WITH THE CONTINENTAL INFLUENCE. THAT SAID, THERE IS
STILL MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS PWATS
WILL HOVER AROUND THE 1.9 TO 2 INCH RANGE, AND THEREFORE EXPECTING
MORE OF A TYPICAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM. ONE MAIN FACTOR THAT SUSPECT IS CAUSING MORE
DISCREPANCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE FORMING OF A BROAD UPPER
LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND/OR EASTERN GULF ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, IN WHICH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS WELL AS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE LONG TERM
(MORE ON THAT BELOW). ALL IN ALL, EXPECTING HIGHEST TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO RESULT IN HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST FL,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NEARLY PINNED ATLANTIC BREEZE ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL OVERALL TREND CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
THE SHORT TERM, IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
...MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS BOTH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGHINESS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS PLACED THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A 20% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE
LIFTING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING
DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. REGARDLESS, THE MAIN TAKE HOME
POINTS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ENHANCED SHOWER/T'STORM
ACTIVITY AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, AND SECONDLY
AS A SEASONAL REMINDER TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL READINESS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS CONVECTION IN THE 00Z
TAFS. EXPECTING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-60 PERCENT)
PROBABLY FOR THE NORTHEAST FL TAFS THAN FOR SSI. FOR SURFACE WINDS,
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FOR SSI, CRG, AND SGJ FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WESTERLY ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT. AFTER 14Z THURSDAY, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT, BUT
SEA BREEZE WIND SHIFT EXPECTED FOR SSI, CRG, AND SGJ BETWEEN 17Z
AND 20Z.
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY, CREATING A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS HIGHLIGHTED A LOW CHANCE, AROUND 20 PERCENT, FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS
AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS:
PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW AT AREA BEACHES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL TODAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DROP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND T'STORMS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST YOU GO AWAY FROM SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. THE FLOW WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS LIKE THE OCALA NATIONAL
FOREST. THESE DISPERSIONS WILL DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA. SHOWER AND T'STORM CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EMERGING. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING, IN WHICH MORE DETAILS WILL BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. NO CONCERNS WITH MINRH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 90 74 93 / 20 30 20 40
SSI 77 92 77 93 / 20 30 10 10
JAX 75 92 75 94 / 30 40 30 40
SGJ 75 92 76 93 / 20 40 20 40
GNV 74 92 73 93 / 20 50 30 70
OCF 74 92 75 92 / 20 50 30 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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