854
FXUS62 KJAX 160759
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
359 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1021
MILLIBARS) SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WAS DISSIPATING. ALOFT..."HEAT WAVE" RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, WITH THIS FEATURE FLATTENING AS TROUGHING DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. BENEATH THIS RIDGE, A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WAS SPINNING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE FL KEYS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST GULF. MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WAS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE AS OF
08Z, WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
RIDGING POSITIONED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED "TUTT" FEATURE OVER SOUTH FL AND THE FL
KEYS SLOWLY SHARPENS WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF BY EARLY FRIDAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SLOWLY RETROGRADES
WESTWARD. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, WITH INLAND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S, WITH A
SLIGHTLY DELAYED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE ALLOWING HIGHS TO AGAIN
REACH THE LOWER 90S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
LIKELY PEAK JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE 102-107 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEASONABLE MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD ACTIVATE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC AND GULF
SEA BREEZES, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY
PERHAPS INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 17 AND 301
CORRIDORS. A FEW STORMS MAY PULSE AS THESE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE,
BUT RELATIVELY MILD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES
SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DOWNBURST WINDS OF 35-45
MPH, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
AS STORM MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW.
CONVECTION MAY DRIFT FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE U.S.-301 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, WITH
LIGHT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS FOR NE FL THIS
WEEKEND.
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS DEEP
POOLING MOISTURE PLASTERS THE AREA. ONE FACTOR FOR THE FRIDAY
UPTICK IN COVERAGE WILL BE THE COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CLOSES
OFF INTO UPPER LOW. THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NE FL ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, INITIATING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZES. DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THE ZONE OF SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG THE US 301 CORRIDOR
FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES, IT'LL RETROGRADE A BIT FARTHER
NORTHWEST AND ANCHOR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WHERE IT WILL
SIT UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE EASTERN US,
HELPING THE LOW EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE FOCUS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BE REFLECTED
BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW, WHICH MAY GRADUALLY BECOME TROPICAL IN
NATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. THE NAT'L HURRICANE
CENTER MAINTAINS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE MORE PESSIMISTIC AT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OR NOT, A TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY FOR NE AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL ZONES.
OTHERWISE, SEASONABLE SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY
CAP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX PEAKING IN THE
102-107 RANGE IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
IF THE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRAILING IT AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH 50-70% EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT WILL WILL ALSO BUILD
GRADUALLY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO NOSE IN
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS PEAK TEMPERATURES PUSH BACK INTO THE
MID 90S, THE HEAT INDEX MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 17Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOWARDS 18Z, WITH
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INITIALLY NEAR THE SSI TERMINAL AND THEN
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AFTER 20Z.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW FOR TEMPO
GROUPS AT THIS TIME, BUT PROB30 GROUPS FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WERE
INCLUDED AT EACH TERMINAL, WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT THE
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS POTENTIALLY EXTENDING THROUGH AROUND 02Z
FRIDAY AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
POTENTIALLY COLLIDE NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 17 AND 301 CORRIDORS.
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED
AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS, FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 5-10
KNOTS TOWARDS 14Z. OUTSIDE OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE, THE INLAND
MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO EASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SGJ TOWARDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY AT SSI BY 19Z.
THE INLAND MOVING GULF SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT GNV TOWARDS 21Z. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN RESUME AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 02Z
FRIDAY, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHIFTING WINDS TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGE THROUGHOUT OUR WATERS AFTER SUNSET.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY SHIFT BACK OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING OFFSHORE. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY, SHIFTING PREVAILING WINDS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGES THIS
WEEKEND LIKELY BRINGING AT LEAST CAUTION LEVEL WIND SPEEDS TO
OUR LOCAL WATERS. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE, OR 20 PERCENT, OF WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND, AND THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MAY THEN PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE COULD CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WHERE SURF HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
2 FEET. MEANWHILE, LOW SURF HEIGHTS AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW RISK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WIND SURGES DURING THE EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND MAY BUILD SURF
HEIGHTS TO 2-3 FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND TO AROUND 2
FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES, YIELDING A MODERATE RISK AT
ALL AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL TODAY.
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT AND SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHING BEYOND THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, PATCHY INLAND
DISPERSIONS ARE LIKELY, WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS WEST OF US 301.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES GENERALLY FOCUS ALONG THE PINNED
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT INCREASE AREAWIDE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EMERGING.
THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND
SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 75 94 74 / 20 10 40 30
SSI 93 78 93 79 / 40 20 10 10
JAX 94 74 94 75 / 50 20 30 20
SGJ 93 78 93 75 / 50 10 30 10
GNV 94 75 93 73 / 40 30 60 50
OCF 95 75 92 74 / 60 30 70 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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