798
FXUS62 KJAX 161202
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
802 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING & HEAVY
DOWNPOURS
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
- WAVES OF DOWNPOURS & THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL & LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH
CENTRAL FL
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1021
MILLIBARS) SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WAS DISSIPATING. ALOFT..."HEAT WAVE" RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS,
WITH THIS FEATURE FLATTENING AS TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND. BENEATH THIS RIDGE, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) WAS SPINNING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FL AND
THE FL KEYS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST GULF. MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS WAS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH LIGHT
WEST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE
AS OF 08Z, WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
RIDGING POSITIONED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED "TUTT" FEATURE OVER SOUTH FL AND THE FL KEYS
SLOWLY SHARPENS WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
BY EARLY FRIDAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD. SEASONABLY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH INLAND HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 90S, WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
ALLOWING HIGHS TO AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY PEAK JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 102-107 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
SEASONABLE MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD ACTIVATE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZES,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY PERHAPS INCREASING
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 17 AND 301 CORRIDORS. A FEW STORMS MAY
PULSE AS THESE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE, BUT RELATIVELY MILD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT DEVELOP BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DOWNBURST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AS STORM MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW.
CONVECTION MAY DRIFT FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE U.S.-301 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, WITH
LIGHT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING FRIDAY AND SUNDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS FOR NE FL THIS WEEKEND
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS DEEP
POOLING MOISTURE PLASTERS THE AREA. ONE FACTOR FOR THE FRIDAY UPTICK
IN COVERAGE WILL BE THE COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO UPPER LOW. THE
PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE FL ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, INITIATING ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THE ZONE OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG THE
US 301 CORRIDOR FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES, IT'LL RETROGRADE A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST
AND ANCHOR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WHERE IT WILL SIT UNTIL A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE EASTERN US, HELPING THE LOW
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BE REFLECTED BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW, WHICH
MAY GRADUALLY BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON
SUNDAY. THE NAT'L HURRICANE CENTER MAINTAINS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE MORE PESSIMISTIC AT
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OR NOT, A TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL
BE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY FOR NE AND NORTH CENTRAL FL
ZONES.
OTHERWISE, SEASONABLE SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY CAP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND HEAT INDEX PEAKING IN THE 102-107 RANGE IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
IF THE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE, A
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRAILING IT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH 50-70% EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. HEAT WILL WILL ALSO BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS PEAK
TEMPERATURES PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 90S, THE HEAT INDEX MAY BEGIN TO
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS MVFR VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PUSHES PAST
THE COASTAL AND DUVAL TERMINALS AND THE GULF SEABREEZE NEAR GNV MID
TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING 5-8 KNOTS INTO MIDDAY HOURS WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 2.5 KFT. CLOUD BASES WILL RISE TO AROUND
4.0 TO 5.0 KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVES
ONSHORE BY 17-18Z AT SGJ/SSI, THEN TO CRG AND JAX 19-21Z. CONTINUING
PROB30 GROUPS PRIMARILY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MOSTLY FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS WITH THE WINDOW STARTING
EARLIER AT THE COAST AND A BIT LATER AT GNV AND VQQ THROUGH 02Z.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER 00Z, LINGERING INLAND THROUGH
02Z. LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL LEFTOVER STORM CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH VCSH COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03-05Z WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS ALONG COAST AND
TRENDING CALM INLAND AFTER 06Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHIFTING WINDS TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND
SURGE THROUGHOUT OUR WATERS AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
MAY SHIFT BACK OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING OFFSHORE. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY, SHIFTING
PREVAILING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND
SURGES THIS WEEKEND LIKELY BRINGING AT LEAST CAUTION LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO
SHARPEN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE, OR 20 PERCENT, OF WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND, AND THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MAY THEN PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE COULD CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES, WHERE SURF HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 2 FEET.
MEANWHILE, LOW SURF HEIGHTS AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES SHOULD
MAINTAIN A LOW RISK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND SURGES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND MAY BUILD SURF HEIGHTS TO 2-3
FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND TO AROUND 2 FEET AT THE
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES, YIELDING A MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL TODAY
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT AND SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHING BEYOND THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, PATCHY INLAND DISPERSIONS ARE
LIKELY, WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS WEST OF US 301. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES GENERALLY FOCUS ALONG THE PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT INCREASE AREAWIDE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EMERGING. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY MONITORING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 75 94 74 / 20 10 40 30
SSI 93 78 93 79 / 40 20 10 10
JAX 94 74 94 75 / 50 20 30 20
SGJ 93 78 93 75 / 50 10 30 10
GNV 94 75 93 73 / 40 30 60 50
OCF 95 75 92 74 / 60 30 70 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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