118
FXUS62 KJAX 161757
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
157 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY & FRIDAY.
HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING & HEAVY
DOWNPOURS
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
- HEAVY RAINFALL & LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL FL
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA WHILE STRONG HEATING AND OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN LEADS
TO THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEABREEZES MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ALONG
THE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS THE SEABREEZES MERGE BETWEEN US-17 AND
HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDORS. GIVEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
NEAR -5 CELSIUS FROM THE MORNING KJAX SOUNDING, LACK OF WIND SHEAR
ALOFT, AND A FAIRLY MOIST LOW AND MID LEVELS NOT EXPECTING STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER, ANY STRONGER STORMS
FORMING ALONG SEABREEZE COLLISIONS AND OUTFLOWS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35-45 MPH. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE SLOW, ERRATIC STORM
MOTIONS AND LONGER DURATION LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SUPPORTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MID 90S ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE LIMITED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TO THE 100-105
RANGE.
TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WELL
INLAND AND SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST 4-8 MPH WINDS. SKIES WILL TREND
MOSTLY CLEAR LATE OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS INLAND AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE COAST MAINTAINING AROUND 5 MPH. LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS FOR NE FL THIS WEEKEND
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WILL LIKELY CLOSING OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
(PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES), WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. WITH PREVAILING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND,
FOCUSING THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION NEAR AND WEST OF THE US-
301 CORRIDOR, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
A NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE UPPER FEATURE
AND ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS LOW, WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MAINTAINING ONLY A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND RECENT GUIDANCE
TRENDING LESS FAVORABLE.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE MOST LIKELY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102
TO 107 DEGREES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SHOULD HOLD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY
WHILE MAINTAINING HUMID CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
HE UPPER LOW MAY GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF AMERICA, ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING ITS EXACT TIMING. REGARDLESS, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY TRACK
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK PER GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND
SOME ECMWF AI ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE AWAY AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST,
RESULTING IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. WHILE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY, COVERAGE
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE. AT THE SAME TIME, INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S,
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY PUSHING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 105
TO 110 DEGREE RANGE BY MIDWEEK. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WHERE
STORM COVERAGE IS LOWER AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB THE HIGHEST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WILL CHANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVES ACROSS CRG/JAX EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND
THE GULF SEABREEZE SHIFTS ACROSS GNV BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY 5-8 KNOTS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE CURRENTLY MOVES ONSHORE AND SHIFTS WEST OF CRG BY
19Z AND KJAX BEFORE 21Z. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MVFR
RESTRICTIONS MOSTLY DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. MVFR VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS WITH THE
WINDOW STARTING AND ENDING EARLIER NEAR THE COAST AND A BIT LATER AT
GNV AND VQQ THROUGH 02Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER 00Z,
LINGERING INLAND THROUGH 02Z. MID TO HIGH LEVEL LEFTOVER STORM
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS ALONG COAST AND
TRENDING CALM INLAND AFTER 06Z WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING AFTER 13Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO DAILY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST MAY DRIFT TO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING TODAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING WIND FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE IN THE EVENING HOURS ELEVATING
WINDS TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS.
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE, OR 20 PERCENT, OF WEAK
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND, AND THIS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY THEN PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE COULD CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES, WHERE SURF HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 2 FEET.
MEANWHILE, LOW SURF HEIGHTS AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES SHOULD
MAINTAIN A LOW RISK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND SURGES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND MAY BUILD SURF HEIGHTS TO 2-3
FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. NO MINIMUM RH CONCERNS ARE FORECAST, WITH AFTERNOON SMOKE
DISPERSION VALUES ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD FRIDAY
AND THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREMENTALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, HIGH WIND GUSTS,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 75 94 74 / 20 10 30 30
SSI 93 79 93 79 / 30 10 10 10
JAX 93 75 95 75 / 50 20 40 10
SGJ 92 76 93 76 / 50 10 30 10
GNV 92 74 93 73 / 40 20 60 50
OCF 92 75 93 74 / 50 20 80 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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