543
FXUS62 KJAX 172316
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH MARGINAL FLOOD RISK FOR INLAND NE FL
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED ON THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. STRONG STORMS
CONTINUE TO ZIPPER NORTHWARD ALONG I-75, WITH AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS AREA HAS BEEN UNTOUCHED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, LEAVING A
LOT OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES, POSING A THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TONIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WILL BE LOCATED ALONG
THE WEST FL COAST ON SATURDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW LOCATED
NEAR TAMPA. THIS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP
BENEATH THE UPPER FEATURE AND ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MAINTAINING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF THE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION WITH PWATS 2+ INCHES AND TEMPERATURES COOLING ALOFT WILL
INCREASE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS, AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD PUSH INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER STORMS FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE MOST
LIKELY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 107
DEGREES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HOLD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE LOWER 90S WHILE MAINTAINING
HUMID CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ORIENTED FROM THE EASTERN GULF THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS DEFINED BY MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IMPORTANTLY, THE NORTHEAST GULF CONTINUES TO BE AN AREA
THAT IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NHC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
GIVEN IT WOULD BE CLOSE TO LAND AND MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
SHOWING ANYTHING WELL-DEFINED. AS LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER THE FL PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY, ANY TROUGHING OR
LOW PRESSURE WOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD. STILL LOOKS LIKE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE HIGH PWAT AIR OF NEAR 2 TO 2.2 INCHES
(NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATE PERCENTILE), COUPLED WITH CONVERGENT
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOCALIZED
FLOODING RAIN THREAT FOR INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL.
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S, WITH OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY PUSHING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ABOUT THE 105 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE BY MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS, HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SOME AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH
THE CHANCE OF MVFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT GNV/VQQ
FROM 07-11Z. A FEW PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN DIURNAL
HEATING SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 13-15Z TIME FRAME BUT PROBS CONTINUE
TO BE TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST STORM CHANCES
SATURDAY WILL BE WEST OF THE TAF SITES, BUT HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
THE DUVAL SITES FOR NOW, WITH A PROB30 AT GNV.
MARINE
THIS WEEKEND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS AS GRADIENTS INCREASE BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND STRENGTHEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. AS
STEERING FLOW PATTERN TURNS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPMENT. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH SURF 1-2 FEET WILL
BECOME A SOLID MODERATE RISK THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AND BUILD SURF INTO THE 2-3 FEET RANGE AT ALL NE FL/SE
GA BEACHES, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND IMPROVING DISPERSIONS TO THE FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD
RANGE. MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS REGION, WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ROUNDS OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
POTENTIALLY PASSES THROUGH.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 94 73 93 / 50 70 50 60
SSI 80 93 78 92 / 10 20 30 40
JAX 75 94 75 93 / 20 30 30 60
SGJ 75 93 76 92 / 20 20 20 50
GNV 74 93 73 90 / 40 40 20 80
OCF 73 92 74 90 / 30 50 20 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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