974
FXUS62 KJAX 180602
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
202 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOW CHANCE (30%) OF A TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
EXPANDING COVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND SUNDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
ELEVATED AND SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AMID RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY, MAINLY NORTH OF I-10,
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE SHOWERS APPEARS TO
BE BROAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FL.
DUE TO SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
PREMIUM MOISTURE IN PLACE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FOR TODAY...LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL TREND SOUTHERLY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN FL AND THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST. THIS
WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM PUSHING AS FAR INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS NE FL
THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY POCKET OF AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW THIS MORNING LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE DRY POCKET WILL CURTAIL INSTABILITY,
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SE GA
AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY, GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF WAYCROSS AND WEST OF LAKE CITY, TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SEA BREEZE BEING PINNED
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTER FOR COMMUNITIES CLOSER TO THE COAST
TODAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S. THE BEACHES SHOULD STILL FEEL THE
COOLING SEA BREEZE, LIMITING HIGHS TO THE LOW 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL FL FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL ZONES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY FADE MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH LESS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO FEED OFF. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE A SURFACE LOW MAY BEGIN TO ORGANIZE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. THIS LOW REMAINS A POTENTIAL CANDIDATE
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NOW A 30% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES AND EMERGING
FORECAST INFORMATION ON WHAT COULD BECOME THE SECOND ATLANTIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM OF THE 2026 SEASON.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (NHC HAS A 30% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS) CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF
THE WEST COAST OF FL IN THE GULF. REGARDLESS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS HANGING OVER THE AREA (PWATS AROUND 2")
WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER
INLAND AREAS, AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND KEEPS
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER STORMS FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST CAMS INDICATE THE LOW TO REMAIN A BIT LONGER
OVER THE NE GULF AND SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST BEFORE ANY SHIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WHEN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL AND SE GA.
TEMPERATURE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 102 TO 107 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
NEARING MIDWEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA
BY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THE REGION DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING THE WEEK AHEAD AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TREND INTO THE 105 TO 110 RANGE BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR BUT MVFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE
AT GNV/VQQ FROM 09-11Z. A FEW PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE 13-15Z TIME FRAME AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. PULLED BACK ON THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF DRY AIR MOVING OVER THE
TAF SITES TODAY BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S UNLIKELY
THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH MORE THAN A FEW MILES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON 19-22Z. THIS'LL SHIFT WINDS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES ACROSS KSSI, KSGJ AND KCRG AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL AT
TAF SITES WEST OF I-95.
MARINE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TODAY, SHIFTING WINDS SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. AS WINDS SHIFT THEY WILL STRENGTHEN TO EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE RIDGE AXIS
TO THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE'S GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THAT
SYSTEM IS NOW MORE LIKELY TO DRIFT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, A PROLONGED OFFSHORE
FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY WIND
SURGES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURF ELEVATE TO 2-3 FEET ALONG THE SE GA BEACHES AND 2-4 FEET FOR NE
FL BEACHES. SURF HEIGHTS WILL RELAX SOME SUNDAY BUT A MODERATE RISK
IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND IMPROVING
DISPERSIONS TO THE FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD RANGE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 94 73 93 73 / 70 50 60 40
SSI 93 78 92 78 / 20 30 40 30
JAX 94 75 93 75 / 30 30 60 20
SGJ 93 76 92 75 / 20 20 50 20
GNV 93 73 90 72 / 40 20 80 30
OCF 92 74 90 73 / 50 20 80 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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