880
FXUS62 KJAX 182355
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY: DRIER WITH BEST
STORM CHANCES WEST OF HIGHWAY 301. SUNDAY TUESDAY: INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY THE I-75 CORRIDOR
- MEDIUM CHANCE (50%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NE GULF OF
AMERICA
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL TREND SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL AND THE MID/UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL MIGRATES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE FROM PUSHING AS FAR INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL,
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS A DRY POCKET OF AIR (PWATS 1.5-1.7 IN)
WRAPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO NE
FL GENERALLY EAST OF I-75 AND UP TO THE SE GA COAST. THOUGH THE DRY
POCKET WILL CURTAIL INSTABILITY, THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
(PWATS ~2 IN) ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SE GA AND THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG OUTFLOW
PRODUCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL
ZONES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE ALTAMAHA/OCMULGEE RIVER
BASINS TONIGHT AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN GA.
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BEING PINNED, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOTTER FOR COMMUNITIES CLOSER TO THE COAST TODAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
MID 90S. THE BEACHES SHOULD STILL FEEL THE COOLING SEA BREEZE,
LIMITING HIGHS TO THE LOW 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY PEAK
IN THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 70S.
ADDITIONALLY, SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT A BROAD SURFACE LOW IS FORMING IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BENEATH
THE MID/UPPER LOW. THIS LOW REMAINS A POTENTIAL CANDIDATE FOR
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A 30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES ON THIS
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS & HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION
AND MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF, IN WHICH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CURRENTLY
GIVES A 20% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH
MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, RESULTING THE THE HIGHEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS AND
THEREFORE MORE ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TO BE
AREAS FURTHEST WEST, SUCH AS NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AND THE UPPER SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY, WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
OF DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST. STILL EXPECTING ENOUGH OF
A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE AND JUST HIGH ENOUGH LAYER MOISTURE FOR
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FURTHER EAST, HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
WESTERN AREAS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MAKES PROGRESS INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE A BIT
DIFFERENT THAN USUAL WITH THE SYSTEM SKIRTING THE AREA, AS HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WITH SOME MID 90S LIKELY OVER
INLAND NORTH/CENTRAL FL AND SOUTHEAST GA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY AND INTO MID WEEK, WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE FL PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE LIKELY SLOWING AN STALLING, BRINGING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND THEREFORE MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL TREND
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY - FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR TAF SITES DUE TO DRIER AIR,
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING OVER SGJ PRIOR TO 03Z.
MILD WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND BUILDING IN FROM OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 14Z-16Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION REACHING SITES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
SUNDAY BY AROUND 20Z-22Z.
MARINE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TODAY, SHIFTING WINDS SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. AS WINDS SHIFT THEY WILL STRENGTHEN TO EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE RIDGE AXIS
TO THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THERE'S GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THAT
SYSTEM IS NOW MORE LIKELY TO DRIFT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, A PROLONGED OFFSHORE
FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY WIND
SURGES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURF ELEVATES TO 2-3 FEET AND FLOW SHIFTS TO SSE. SURF HEIGHTS WILL
RELAX SOME SUNDAY BUT A MODERATE RISK IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS IN THE EASTERN GULF,
SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH AND WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THIS LOW A 20% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THOUGH IMPACTS TO OUR AREA
AREA EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED OUTSIDE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE, THE INCREASE IN FLOW WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS FOR
MOST, WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS BEING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
WEST OF ABOUT I-75 IN NORTHEAST FL WHERE DISPERSIONS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THANKS TO MORE CLOUD COVER. THE LOW WEAKENS BY MID
NEXT WEEK, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 94 74 93 / 30 20 10 50
SSI 79 93 80 92 / 10 10 10 40
JAX 76 94 77 93 / 10 20 10 50
SGJ 76 92 77 92 / 10 20 10 50
GNV 74 92 74 91 / 10 30 30 60
OCF 74 91 75 91 / 20 40 40 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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