646
FXUS62 KJAX 190554
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
154 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD.
- LIKELY (60% CHANCE) DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 91 INTO A WEAK
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY, POSSIBLY HIGH RISK
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NE FL TODAY.
- INVEST 91 IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH AND THEN WEST
WHILE IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. NHC NOW HAS INCREASED
PROBABILITY TO 60% FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE GRADUAL ORGANIZATION OF SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED EARLY
THIS MORNING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE HAVE BEEN TRACKING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL ZONES. THIS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
WILL LOSE SUPPORT AS IT LIFTS NORTH OF I-4 AND INTO OUR AREA THROUGH
THE PREDAWN HOURS, BUT CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAKING IT TO MARION OR PUTNAM COUNTY.
FOR TODAY...THE FOCUS AND PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND DEEPENING OF THE INVEST 91 DISTURBANCE. DRY
AIR CIRCULATING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING
ALONG THE FL PENINSULA AND INITIALLY CAPPING EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR ZONES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NE FL AND MUCH OF SE
GA. BEHIND THE DRY AIR, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA, FUELING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ENHANCES AMID THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
CLOUDIER SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT LOWER
THAN NORMAL FOR PORTIONS OF NE FL ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. WHILE AREAS WEST
WILL BE ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES WARMER, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WHICH WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX AROUND 100-105 DURING THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...INVEST 91 IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE BIG BEND AND THROUGH THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRING AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OR TWO OF NEEDED RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS & HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS
FOCUS STILL REMAINS ON IF THERE WILL BE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THE BROAD SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN GULF.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTH-NORTHWEST SHIFT OF
THE LOW, WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE ON
MONDAY, AND THEN BEGINS A SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
SOMETIME LATE MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY. THE WESTERN LOCATIONS OF THE
AREA STILL ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW SWEEP ALONG THE FL PENINSULA. THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN THE OVERALL FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
ALLOWING FOR AN INLAND PUSH OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS
INLAND LOCATIONS. WHILE WE EXPECT FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE INTO THE
LOW 90S, CLOUD COVER AND PASSING SHOWERS COULD BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FL PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK AS THE
GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SCATTERED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BRING HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SE
GA AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO STALL NEARS THE REGION DURING THE LATER
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE I-75
TERMINAL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE NE
FL TERMINALS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTELRY WINDS AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 17-19Z,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE ESE WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS. AS MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. TSRA CHANCES WILL HIGHER
BUT FOR NE FL TERMINALS BUT ROGUE SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
EVENING AT KSSI. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.
MARINE
THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY. AS IT DOES,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE INVEST 91 LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWEST, IT'S INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
STRENGTHENS, WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
CAUSING SEAS TO ELEVATE ON TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRONT HE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS:
BREEZY LONGSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP BREAKERS AROUND 2-3 FEET AND RESULT
IN A SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES ONSHORE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ELEVATE BREAKERS TO 3-5 FEET.
RIGHT NOW, MONDAY THE RISK WILL BE KEPT AT MODERATE. AS SURF BUILDS
TUESDAY, RISK WILL LIKELY JUMP TO THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS IN THE EASTERN GULF,
SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH AND WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THIS LOW A 60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THOUGH IMPACTS TO OUR AREA
AREA EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED OUTSIDE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE, THE INCREASE IN FLOW WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS FOR
MOST, WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS BEING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
WEST OF ABOUT I-75 IN NORTHEAST FL WHERE DISPERSIONS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THANKS TO MORE CLOUD COVER. THE LOW WEAKENS BY MID
NEXT WEEK, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 94 74 93 74 / 20 10 50 10
SSI 93 80 92 80 / 10 10 40 20
JAX 94 77 93 77 / 20 10 50 10
SGJ 92 77 92 77 / 20 10 50 20
GNV 92 74 91 74 / 30 30 60 20
OCF 91 75 91 75 / 40 40 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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