876
FXUS62 KJAX 192330
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
730 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.
STRONGER STORM HAZARDS: DAMAGING GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH & LOCALIZED
FLOODING
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 FORMS IN THE EASTERN GULF. DIRECT LOCAL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY. MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLOODING RAINFALL AREA-WIDE
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY, POSSIBLE HIGH RISK
TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
INLAND NE FL AND SE GA.
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NE GULF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NE GULF EARLIER THIS
MORNING. TD 2 WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND MEANDER NNW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ROTATING SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTHWARD UP THE FL PENINSULA
INTO NE FL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.8-2.1 IN) ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZES. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TD 2 INTERACT WITH THE SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTS 40-60 MPH AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ROTATE INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS TD 2 SHIFTS NNW.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND
I-75 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 90S INLAND. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS, PEAK
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100-107 F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
- BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS & HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (TD2) WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS
EXPECTED BEING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ROTATING TOWARDS THE
AREA AT TIMES, ADDING TO THE USUAL DIURNAL CONVECTION TO AN EXTENT
AS IT PULLS AWAY. PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
DAILY CONVECTION ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS AND
WEST OF I-75 APPROACHING THE GULF COAST WHERE HIGHER POPS AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEM
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH A GENERAL 10-20G25-30 WIND FORECAST FOR BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL, THOUGH GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES CLOSER
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN
COVERAGE WILL BE. GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S NORTH AND EAST OF
I-75, AND LOW 90S NEAR AND WEST OF THE SAME INTERSTATE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO BRING A
RATHER TEMPORARY DRIER AIR INTRUSION INTO THE REGION AND THEREFORE
LIMITING POPS BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
THURSDAY - SATURDAY TIME FRAME THEREFORE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
HIGHER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA CLOSER TO THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO, POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
MVFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM LINGERING TSRA
AT NE FL TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z, THEN VFR CONDS WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALONG WITH THE USUAL
PATCHY MVFR FOR CHANCES AT VQQ FROM 07-11Z TIME FRAME. BREEZY S-SE
WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING AFTER 14Z TIME FRAME, WITH
STRONGEST SE WINDS BEHIND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AT SSI/CRG/SGJ.
TSRA CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE MORNING AT GNV WITH PROB30 GROUPS
ADDED FROM 16-22Z, THEN SLIGHTLY LATER AT NE FL COASTAL TAF SITES
FROM 18-24Z. SSI SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MUCH
LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES AND ONLY VCSH EXPECTED AT MOST WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AT 13G20 KNOTS AS WELL.
MARINE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TODAY
CONTINUING BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK AS IT
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE REGION. WINDS WILL REACH
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
LATER THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS:
BREEZY LONGSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP BREAKERS AROUND 2-3 FEET AND RESULT
IN A SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES ONSHORE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ELEVATE BREAKERS TO 3-5 FEET.
RIGHT NOW, MONDAY THE RISK WILL BE KEPT AT MODERATE. AS SURF BUILDS
TUESDAY, RISK WILL LIKELY JUMP TO THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (TD2)
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA. MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN ANY DAYTIME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS AND WEST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR WHERE THESE WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.
BREEZIER FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE REGION, WHICH WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH IN SOME
SPOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AND STALL AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, RETURNING HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AFTER A SLIGHT LULL ON WEDNESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
EXPECTED FROM TD2.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 95 74 93 / 30 50 20 30
SSI 80 91 81 92 / 10 20 10 20
JAX 76 95 77 94 / 20 40 10 30
SGJ 76 93 76 94 / 20 50 20 30
GNV 74 92 75 92 / 40 70 20 40
OCF 74 92 75 92 / 40 70 20 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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