782
FXUS62 KJAX 201059
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
659 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DIRECT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 NOT EXPECTED.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
DEPRESSION MOVES WEST TO NORHTWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTLINE
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAZARDS:
GUSTY WINDS 30-50 MPH AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING
ACTIVITY. LESSER STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY, POSSIBLE HIGH RISK TUESDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- SEASONABLY HOT SUMMER CONDITIONS
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
- BRIEF PERIODS OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
FRINGE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OVERSPREADS PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF THE
ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE HIGH-GRADE
MOISTURE, IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL ENTITY WILL BE
MINIMAL.
WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH
GULF SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, INITIATING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW WILL TRACK PULSES NORTHWARD AT A DECENT
CLIP, AROUND 25 MPH, AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WITH STRONGER CORES. AS MENTIONED, PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 2-2.25" WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE SOME BRIEF TRAINING CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BRING BACK-
TO-BACK ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND FADE COMPLETELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS
A DRY SLOT LIFTS INTO THE REGION.
ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT SUMMER DAY THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THE HUMIDITY WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL MUCH HOTTER WITH PEAK HEAT
INDEX AROUND 100-107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON
THE HEAT BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVEL, BUT LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE
COAST MAY REACH A HEAT INDEX NEAR 108-110 BRIEFLY AS MOISTURE PUSHES
IN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN NORMAL
GIVEN THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE WHICH WILL GENERALLY KEEP
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S, POSSIBLY AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
- BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS & HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY
- DRIER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 2 (TD2) WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY ALONG
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY.THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO FEATURES BRINGING WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND SOME LOCATIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
FL ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY STILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN LOCATIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR WILL SIT OVER
THE MORE EASTERN LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY, DRY AIR FILTERS IN AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS TD2 PUSHES FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE LOWER 90S, BUT PASSING SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO TUESDAY AS HIGHS WILL RISE
TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE FL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDWEEK
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA AS THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES PAST MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR POPS
TO INCREASE ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE FL
DURING THE END OF WORK WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AS WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, COULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO REACH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULUS AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT 12Z. HOWEVER, EXCEPTION IS SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AROUND
SSI THIS MORNING, THOUGH IT'S QUESTIONABLE BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MORE CUMULUS FORM BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH A
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TSRA CHANCES WITH AN
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR GNV FIRST BY NEAR 17Z, AND THEN DEVELOP
TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN VICINITY FOR SSI DUE TO THE DEEP
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION A LITTLE
FURTHER INLAND. OTHERWISE, PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
THE OTHER TAFS. EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL
AROUND THE AREA AT 00Z-01Z TUESDAY, AND THEN DIMINISHING
FURTHER AFTER 03Z-04Z. FOR SFC WINDS, LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY ABOUT 14Z-15Z, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MARINE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL LEAD TO A LONG DURATION OF BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVEL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, OR AROUND 20 KNOTS, BY
TUESDAY IF THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH. THE
PROLONGED SOUTH WINDS WILL ELEVATE SEAS UP TO 5 OR POSSIBLY 6 FEET
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL
DECREASE IN STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES FARTHER WEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WHILE WINDS DECREASE, A SHIFT TO OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS:
BREEZY LONGSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP BREAKERS AROUND 2-3 FEET AND RESULT
IN A SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES ONSHORE. INCREASING SURF TUESDAY WILL ELEVATE BREAKERS
TO 3-5 FEET RESULTING IN HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK IN SE GA
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (TD2)
SHIFTS WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH DAYTIME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZIER FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
GOOD DISPERSIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS MAINLY ACROSS SE GA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY, RETURNING HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AFTER A SLIGHT
LULL ON WEDNESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
EXPECTED FROM TD2.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 95 75 93 75 / 40 20 40 0
SSI 93 82 93 81 / 10 10 20 0
JAX 95 78 95 77 / 50 10 40 0
SGJ 93 77 94 77 / 40 10 30 0
GNV 92 75 93 74 / 60 10 40 0
OCF 91 76 93 75 / 70 10 40 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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