783
FXUS62 KJAX 211723
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
123 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
U.S.-301. HAZARDS: GUSTY WINDS 40-50 MPH AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LIMITED STORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
- SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE PEAK HEAT INDICES 102-108
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LOWER RISK THURSDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
PROB30S ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, AS THUNDER CHANCES ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL,
GNV HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET, AND CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
TO SIMMER DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AFTER THE POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS.
MARINE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEAD A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL RISE TOWARD 5 OR POSSIBLY 6 FEET TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
WINDS. RELAXING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW
GENERALLY TRENDS OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALLS NORTH OF THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT. THOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, AFTERNOON
WINDS IN NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE COASTAL SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS:
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
PUSH ELEVATED WIND WAVES INTO THE COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH STRONG LONGSHORE. GIVEN A MINIMAL ONSHORE SWELL, THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BE ON THE UPPER-END OF MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT QUITE HIGH RISK. MODERATE RISK IS LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FALLING THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR
IN SOUTHEAST GA, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, CREATING HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
PREVAILING ON THURSDAY AND THEN A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY. ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
GENERALLY YIELD GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES INLAND, WITH FAIR
VALUES FORECAST AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE BREEZY ONSHORE SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 75 94 75 / 30 10 10 10
SSI 92 81 94 80 / 20 20 0 0
JAX 95 77 96 76 / 30 10 0 0
SGJ 93 77 95 76 / 30 20 0 0
GNV 93 75 94 74 / 40 0 10 0
OCF 93 75 94 75 / 40 0 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ450-452-
454-470-472-474.
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